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Table of Contents
Front Cover
Contents
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
Focus of the Report
Taking a Global, Long-Run Perspective
Stay or Go: Why and in What Context Do Water Shocks Induce Migration?
Water, Migration, and Human Capital Spillovers: Who Are the Typical Migrants and What Human Capital Do They Carry with Them?
The Cost of Day Zero Events: What Are the Development Implications for Shocks in the City?
Going with the Flow: The Policy Challenge
References
Chapter One Transitions and Transformations
Introduction
Focus of the Report
Climate Change and the Increasing Variability of Rainfall
Learning about Water's Role in Global Migration from Half a Billion Individual Records
Social Dimensions of Migration
Structure of the Report
References
Spotlight Inequality, Social Cohesion, and the COVID-19 Public Health Crisis at the Nexus of Water and Migration
Chapter Two Stay or Go?
Key Highlights
Introduction
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Estimating the Impacts of Water Shocks on Migration Decisions
Does Buffering Rural Income from Rainfall Shocks Influence Migration?
Irrigation Costs and Forest Loss
Water as a Conduit for Development
Notes
References
Chapter Three Water, Migration, and Human Capital Spillovers
Key Highlights
Introduction: The Human Capital Channel
From Temporal to Spatial Spillovers
Water Shocks, Distress Migration, and Workers' Skills
Productivity, Growth, and Welfare
Adaptation Strategies, Adjustment Channels, and Regional Specificities
Implications for Development Policy
Note
References
Chapter Four The Cost of Day Zero Events
Key Highlights
A Historical Perspective on Droughts and Cities
Learn from the Past or Be Doomed to Repeat It
The Importance of Water for Growth.
Quantifying the Cost of Day Zero-Like Events
The Way Forward
Notes
References
Chapter Five Going with the Flow
The Policy Challenge
Policy Options at the Origin
Policy Options at the Destination
Weighing Policy Options
Annex 5A Projected Changes in Annual Rainfall in Africa
Notes
References
Boxes
Box 1.1: Water and the Urbanizing Force of Development
Box 1.2: Is Water a Locational Fundamental?
Box 1.3: COVID-19 (Coronovirus) Fallout
Box 1.4: Exploring Water Scarcity through Water Shocks
Box 1.5: Harnessing the Power of Machine Learning
Box 1.6: Social Cleavages Run Deep
Box 2.1: Using Disaggregated Global Data to Illuminate Water and Migration Links
Box 2.2: Choosing Not to Migrate
Box 2.3: Measuring the Buffering Effect of Gray and Green Infrastructure
Box 2.4: Water Shocks and Declining Wetlands
Box 2.5: Irrigation Costs and Forest Loss
Box 3.1: Examining Determinants of Migrants' Human Capital through Census Data
Box 3.2: Rainfall, Education, and Regional Migration-Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data
Box 3.3: Drought and Rural-Urban Migration: Impacts of Cumulative Rainfall Shocks
Box 4.1: The Resilience of Urban Water Systems
Box 4.2: Measuring the Impacts of Water Deficits on Economic Activity in Cities
Box 5.1: Analytical Approaches Help Decision-Makers Confront Large Uncertainties
Box 5.2: New Ideas to Thwart the Next Urban Water Crisis
Box 5.3: Place-Based Policies and Risk Management
Figures
Figure ES.1: This Report Takes a Global Perspective to Answer Three Questions
Figure ES.2: The Importance of Various Characteristics in Explaining Migration
Figure ES.3: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Out-Migration Rates, by Income
Figure ES.4: Rainfall and Migrants' Education.
Figure ES.5: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on City Growth Rates at Urban Water Points
Figure ES.6: Water Shapes Migration and Development
Figure ES.7: Policies and Investments to Sustain Prosperity
Figure 1.1: The Report Takes a Global Perspective to Address Three Questions
Figure 1.2: The Importance of Water Shocks in Explaining Migration
Figure 2.1: Main Results at a Glance: Channels through Which Rainfall Deficits Affect Migration
Figure 2.2: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Out-Migration Rates, by Agricultural Dependence and Income Distribution
Figure 2.3: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Out-Migration Rates, by Gray (Irrigation) and Green (Forest) Infrastructure
Figure 3.1: Rainfall and Migrants' Education
Figure 3.2: Migrant Skills and the Presence of Large Cities
Figure 4.1: Impact of Water Supply Shocks on City Growth Rates
Figure 4.2: Impact of Water Supply Shocks on Urban Luminosity Growth Rate, by Climate
Figure 4.3: Impact of Water Supply Shocks on Urban Luminosity Growth Rate, by City Population Size
Figure 4.4: Impact of Weather at Nonsurface Urban Water Points on Urban Luminosity Growth Rate, Placebo Test
Figure 4.5: Comparison of Water-Intensive and Water-Scarce Economies, Nonagricultural
Figure 5.1: Policy Approaches at the Source and Destination
Figure 5.2: Share of Regions in North Africa and G5 Sahel Countries That Experienced Different Types of Conflict Events, by the Presence of Irrigation
Figure 5.3: Policies and Investments to Sustain Prosperity
Figure 5A.1.1: Projected Changes in Annual Rainfall in Africa
Maps
Map B1.2.1: Clustering of Cities along Major River Basins
Map B3.2.1: Regions Used in the Cross-Sectional Analysis
Map B3.3.1: The Subregions of Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico Explored Using Census Data.
Map 4.1: Location of Cities Experiencing Deep Three-Plus Years of Water Deficits, 1992-2013
Tables
Table 4.1: Drought Events in Major Urban Water Supply Systems
Table 4.2: Cities Facing Largest Three-Year Water Deficits
Table B5.3.1: Typology of Options for Risk Management.
Contents
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
Focus of the Report
Taking a Global, Long-Run Perspective
Stay or Go: Why and in What Context Do Water Shocks Induce Migration?
Water, Migration, and Human Capital Spillovers: Who Are the Typical Migrants and What Human Capital Do They Carry with Them?
The Cost of Day Zero Events: What Are the Development Implications for Shocks in the City?
Going with the Flow: The Policy Challenge
References
Chapter One Transitions and Transformations
Introduction
Focus of the Report
Climate Change and the Increasing Variability of Rainfall
Learning about Water's Role in Global Migration from Half a Billion Individual Records
Social Dimensions of Migration
Structure of the Report
References
Spotlight Inequality, Social Cohesion, and the COVID-19 Public Health Crisis at the Nexus of Water and Migration
Chapter Two Stay or Go?
Key Highlights
Introduction
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Estimating the Impacts of Water Shocks on Migration Decisions
Does Buffering Rural Income from Rainfall Shocks Influence Migration?
Irrigation Costs and Forest Loss
Water as a Conduit for Development
Notes
References
Chapter Three Water, Migration, and Human Capital Spillovers
Key Highlights
Introduction: The Human Capital Channel
From Temporal to Spatial Spillovers
Water Shocks, Distress Migration, and Workers' Skills
Productivity, Growth, and Welfare
Adaptation Strategies, Adjustment Channels, and Regional Specificities
Implications for Development Policy
Note
References
Chapter Four The Cost of Day Zero Events
Key Highlights
A Historical Perspective on Droughts and Cities
Learn from the Past or Be Doomed to Repeat It
The Importance of Water for Growth.
Quantifying the Cost of Day Zero-Like Events
The Way Forward
Notes
References
Chapter Five Going with the Flow
The Policy Challenge
Policy Options at the Origin
Policy Options at the Destination
Weighing Policy Options
Annex 5A Projected Changes in Annual Rainfall in Africa
Notes
References
Boxes
Box 1.1: Water and the Urbanizing Force of Development
Box 1.2: Is Water a Locational Fundamental?
Box 1.3: COVID-19 (Coronovirus) Fallout
Box 1.4: Exploring Water Scarcity through Water Shocks
Box 1.5: Harnessing the Power of Machine Learning
Box 1.6: Social Cleavages Run Deep
Box 2.1: Using Disaggregated Global Data to Illuminate Water and Migration Links
Box 2.2: Choosing Not to Migrate
Box 2.3: Measuring the Buffering Effect of Gray and Green Infrastructure
Box 2.4: Water Shocks and Declining Wetlands
Box 2.5: Irrigation Costs and Forest Loss
Box 3.1: Examining Determinants of Migrants' Human Capital through Census Data
Box 3.2: Rainfall, Education, and Regional Migration-Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data
Box 3.3: Drought and Rural-Urban Migration: Impacts of Cumulative Rainfall Shocks
Box 4.1: The Resilience of Urban Water Systems
Box 4.2: Measuring the Impacts of Water Deficits on Economic Activity in Cities
Box 5.1: Analytical Approaches Help Decision-Makers Confront Large Uncertainties
Box 5.2: New Ideas to Thwart the Next Urban Water Crisis
Box 5.3: Place-Based Policies and Risk Management
Figures
Figure ES.1: This Report Takes a Global Perspective to Answer Three Questions
Figure ES.2: The Importance of Various Characteristics in Explaining Migration
Figure ES.3: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Out-Migration Rates, by Income
Figure ES.4: Rainfall and Migrants' Education.
Figure ES.5: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on City Growth Rates at Urban Water Points
Figure ES.6: Water Shapes Migration and Development
Figure ES.7: Policies and Investments to Sustain Prosperity
Figure 1.1: The Report Takes a Global Perspective to Address Three Questions
Figure 1.2: The Importance of Water Shocks in Explaining Migration
Figure 2.1: Main Results at a Glance: Channels through Which Rainfall Deficits Affect Migration
Figure 2.2: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Out-Migration Rates, by Agricultural Dependence and Income Distribution
Figure 2.3: Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Out-Migration Rates, by Gray (Irrigation) and Green (Forest) Infrastructure
Figure 3.1: Rainfall and Migrants' Education
Figure 3.2: Migrant Skills and the Presence of Large Cities
Figure 4.1: Impact of Water Supply Shocks on City Growth Rates
Figure 4.2: Impact of Water Supply Shocks on Urban Luminosity Growth Rate, by Climate
Figure 4.3: Impact of Water Supply Shocks on Urban Luminosity Growth Rate, by City Population Size
Figure 4.4: Impact of Weather at Nonsurface Urban Water Points on Urban Luminosity Growth Rate, Placebo Test
Figure 4.5: Comparison of Water-Intensive and Water-Scarce Economies, Nonagricultural
Figure 5.1: Policy Approaches at the Source and Destination
Figure 5.2: Share of Regions in North Africa and G5 Sahel Countries That Experienced Different Types of Conflict Events, by the Presence of Irrigation
Figure 5.3: Policies and Investments to Sustain Prosperity
Figure 5A.1.1: Projected Changes in Annual Rainfall in Africa
Maps
Map B1.2.1: Clustering of Cities along Major River Basins
Map B3.2.1: Regions Used in the Cross-Sectional Analysis
Map B3.3.1: The Subregions of Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico Explored Using Census Data.
Map 4.1: Location of Cities Experiencing Deep Three-Plus Years of Water Deficits, 1992-2013
Tables
Table 4.1: Drought Events in Major Urban Water Supply Systems
Table 4.2: Cities Facing Largest Three-Year Water Deficits
Table B5.3.1: Typology of Options for Risk Management.