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Table of Contents
Front Cover
Contents
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
Abbreviations
Chapter One: The Unprecedented Collision of Water Scarcity, Conflict, and Forced Displacement
Key Highlights
Introduction
Focus of the Report
Note
References
Chapter Two: Why and in What Contexts Does Water Contribute to Conflict and Forced Displacement?
Key Highlights
Introduction
What Is the Evidence on the Links between Water Risks and Forced Displacement?
What Is the Evidence on the Links between Water and Conflict?
Does Forced Displacement Catalyze Conflict and Tensions over Water?
Looking Ahead: Soaring Demand, Climate Change, and the Changing Nature of Conflict
Conclusions
Note
References
Chapter Three: Least Protected, Most Affected
Key Highlights
Introduction
Who Are the Forcibly Displaced Populations and Their Host Communities?
Where Do the Forcibly Displaced Populations Live and What Water Risks Do They Face?
COVID-19 Exacerbates Existing Vulnerabilities and Creates New Challenges
Conclusions
Notes
References
Chapter Four: Water: An Opportunity for Protecting the Most Vulnerable and Building Resilience
Key Highlights
Introduction
From People's Grievances to Regional Dynamics: An Integrated Framework to Respond to Water Risks during Protracted Forced Displacement
The Path Not Taken: Trade-Offs between Short-Term Gains and Long-Term Sustainability Shape Success
References
Appendix A: Definitions of Selected Terms Used in This Report
Appendix B: Water Conflict and Cooperation Event Data Sets
Appendix C: Interviews with Key Informants
Appendix D: Interviews with Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon
Boxes
Box 1.1: Climate Change, Population Growth, and the Middle East and North Africa's Water Crisis.
Box 2.1: Influence of Water Risks on Migration and Conflict Relative to Socioeconomic and Political Factors
Box 2.2: Climate Change in the Syrian Arab Republic
Box 2.3: Complementary Approaches to Study the Links between Water-Related Variables, Migration, and Conflict
Box 2.4: Basra: A Hot Spot of Water Scarcity and Fragility
Box 2.5: Combined Impact of Conflict and Climate-Related Water Risks: Evidence from Lake Chad
Box 3.1: Water Challenges in the Shatila Refugee Camp, Beirut, Lebanon
Box 3.2: A Syrian's Access to Water in the Zaatari Camp
Box 3.3: Water Risks and Those Left Behind
Box 3.4: What Has COVID-19 Meant for Refugees' Water Security? Tales from Syrian Refugees in Jordan
Box 4.1: Bridging Humanitarian Response and Development in Uganda: The Integrated Water Management and Development Project
Box 4.2: Emerging Lessons from the Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project in the Horn of Africa
Box 4.3: Controlled Environment Agriculture for Forcibly Displaced Populations and Host Communities
Box C.1: Expert Elicitation Themes and Questions in Key Informant Questionnaire
Box D.1: Topics and Questions on Impacts of COVID-19 and Water Security Questionnaire
Figures
Figure ES.1: Framework to Examine the Interplay of Water, Conflict, and Forced Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure ES.2: Approach for Development Actors to Promote Water Security for Forcibly Displaced People and Their Host Communities
Figure ES.3: Decision Points in Response to Water Risks Faced by Forcibly Displaced People and Their Hosy Communities
Figure ES.4: Water in the Shadow of Conflict
Figure 1.1: Framework to Examine the Interplay of Water, Conflict, and Forced Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa.
Figure 2.1: Reasons for Leaving Place of Origin and Coming to Current Location among IDP Communities in Libya, June 2020
Figure B2.1.1: Factors that Influence Migration in the Middle East and North Africa, by Influence and Uncertainty
Figure B2.1.2: Ranking of Factors That Most Influence Armed Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure B2.1.3: Changes in the Influence of Water Risks on Migration Rates under Increasing Climate Change
Figure 2.2: Number of Domestic Events Related to Water Quality/Quantity in the Middle East and North Africa Displayed on a Conflict/Cooperation Scale, 1997-2009
Figure 2.3: Number of International Water Events in the Middle East and North Africa Displayed on a Conflict/Cooperation Scale, 1948-2008
Figure 2.4: Instances of Water Infrastructure Targeting in the Middle East and North Africa, 2011-18
Figure 3.1: Countries and Economies of Origin of Forced Displacement, 2020
Figure 3.2: Number of Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Palestinian Refugees Hosted, by Country and Economy, 2020
Figure 3.3: Share of Refugees and Asylum Seekers with Disability Status, by Country in the Middle East and North Africa, 2019
Figure 3.4: Three Displacement Settings and Related Characteristics
Figure 3.5: Access to Drinking Water and to Improved Unshared Sanitation Facilities by Area of Residence in West Bank and Gaza, Including Camps and Source of Water, 2014
Figure 3.6: Access to Services among Syrian Arab Republic Refugees in Three Locations in Jordan, by Household with Disability, 2018
Figure 3.7: Primary Humanitarian Needs of IDPs and Returnees in the Republic of Yemen, 2019
Figure 3.8: Main Sources of Water among IDPs, Returnees, International Migrants, and Host Communities in Libya, 2020.
Figure B3.3.1: Gaps in Networked Water Supply and Sanitation Services between Capital City and Other Areas
Figure B3.3.2: Water Risks Are Associated with Higher Spatial Inequality in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Figure 3.9: Share of International Migrant Population by Frequency of Access to Public Drinking Water Supply
Figure 3.10: Percentage of Lebanese Households Exposed to E. coli at Point of Consumption and Distribution
Figure 3.11: Access to Sanitation Services for Syrian Refugees, by Host Country and Location, 2017
Figure 3.12: Water Quality Trends and Number of Refugees in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon
Figure 3.13: Performance Data for Selected Utilities in Kurdistan Region of Iraq, 2011 and 2017
Figure 4.1: Approach for Development Actors to Promote Water Security for Forcibly Displaced People and Their Host Communities
Figure 4.2: Decision Points, Pathways, and Water Security Outcomes for Forcibly Displaced People and their Host Communities
Tables
Table 2.1: Examples of International Water Events in the Middle East and North Africa, Ranked on a Conflict/Cooperation Scale, 1948-2008
Table B.1: Number of Events Recorded in the WARICC Data Set by Event Type for Different Samples of the Full Data Set
Table B.2: Countries Involved and Number of Events Recorded in the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database by Event Type for Different Samples of the Full Data Set
Table C.1: Key Informants Interviewed as Part of This Study.
Contents
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
Abbreviations
Chapter One: The Unprecedented Collision of Water Scarcity, Conflict, and Forced Displacement
Key Highlights
Introduction
Focus of the Report
Note
References
Chapter Two: Why and in What Contexts Does Water Contribute to Conflict and Forced Displacement?
Key Highlights
Introduction
What Is the Evidence on the Links between Water Risks and Forced Displacement?
What Is the Evidence on the Links between Water and Conflict?
Does Forced Displacement Catalyze Conflict and Tensions over Water?
Looking Ahead: Soaring Demand, Climate Change, and the Changing Nature of Conflict
Conclusions
Note
References
Chapter Three: Least Protected, Most Affected
Key Highlights
Introduction
Who Are the Forcibly Displaced Populations and Their Host Communities?
Where Do the Forcibly Displaced Populations Live and What Water Risks Do They Face?
COVID-19 Exacerbates Existing Vulnerabilities and Creates New Challenges
Conclusions
Notes
References
Chapter Four: Water: An Opportunity for Protecting the Most Vulnerable and Building Resilience
Key Highlights
Introduction
From People's Grievances to Regional Dynamics: An Integrated Framework to Respond to Water Risks during Protracted Forced Displacement
The Path Not Taken: Trade-Offs between Short-Term Gains and Long-Term Sustainability Shape Success
References
Appendix A: Definitions of Selected Terms Used in This Report
Appendix B: Water Conflict and Cooperation Event Data Sets
Appendix C: Interviews with Key Informants
Appendix D: Interviews with Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon
Boxes
Box 1.1: Climate Change, Population Growth, and the Middle East and North Africa's Water Crisis.
Box 2.1: Influence of Water Risks on Migration and Conflict Relative to Socioeconomic and Political Factors
Box 2.2: Climate Change in the Syrian Arab Republic
Box 2.3: Complementary Approaches to Study the Links between Water-Related Variables, Migration, and Conflict
Box 2.4: Basra: A Hot Spot of Water Scarcity and Fragility
Box 2.5: Combined Impact of Conflict and Climate-Related Water Risks: Evidence from Lake Chad
Box 3.1: Water Challenges in the Shatila Refugee Camp, Beirut, Lebanon
Box 3.2: A Syrian's Access to Water in the Zaatari Camp
Box 3.3: Water Risks and Those Left Behind
Box 3.4: What Has COVID-19 Meant for Refugees' Water Security? Tales from Syrian Refugees in Jordan
Box 4.1: Bridging Humanitarian Response and Development in Uganda: The Integrated Water Management and Development Project
Box 4.2: Emerging Lessons from the Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project in the Horn of Africa
Box 4.3: Controlled Environment Agriculture for Forcibly Displaced Populations and Host Communities
Box C.1: Expert Elicitation Themes and Questions in Key Informant Questionnaire
Box D.1: Topics and Questions on Impacts of COVID-19 and Water Security Questionnaire
Figures
Figure ES.1: Framework to Examine the Interplay of Water, Conflict, and Forced Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure ES.2: Approach for Development Actors to Promote Water Security for Forcibly Displaced People and Their Host Communities
Figure ES.3: Decision Points in Response to Water Risks Faced by Forcibly Displaced People and Their Hosy Communities
Figure ES.4: Water in the Shadow of Conflict
Figure 1.1: Framework to Examine the Interplay of Water, Conflict, and Forced Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa.
Figure 2.1: Reasons for Leaving Place of Origin and Coming to Current Location among IDP Communities in Libya, June 2020
Figure B2.1.1: Factors that Influence Migration in the Middle East and North Africa, by Influence and Uncertainty
Figure B2.1.2: Ranking of Factors That Most Influence Armed Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure B2.1.3: Changes in the Influence of Water Risks on Migration Rates under Increasing Climate Change
Figure 2.2: Number of Domestic Events Related to Water Quality/Quantity in the Middle East and North Africa Displayed on a Conflict/Cooperation Scale, 1997-2009
Figure 2.3: Number of International Water Events in the Middle East and North Africa Displayed on a Conflict/Cooperation Scale, 1948-2008
Figure 2.4: Instances of Water Infrastructure Targeting in the Middle East and North Africa, 2011-18
Figure 3.1: Countries and Economies of Origin of Forced Displacement, 2020
Figure 3.2: Number of Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Palestinian Refugees Hosted, by Country and Economy, 2020
Figure 3.3: Share of Refugees and Asylum Seekers with Disability Status, by Country in the Middle East and North Africa, 2019
Figure 3.4: Three Displacement Settings and Related Characteristics
Figure 3.5: Access to Drinking Water and to Improved Unshared Sanitation Facilities by Area of Residence in West Bank and Gaza, Including Camps and Source of Water, 2014
Figure 3.6: Access to Services among Syrian Arab Republic Refugees in Three Locations in Jordan, by Household with Disability, 2018
Figure 3.7: Primary Humanitarian Needs of IDPs and Returnees in the Republic of Yemen, 2019
Figure 3.8: Main Sources of Water among IDPs, Returnees, International Migrants, and Host Communities in Libya, 2020.
Figure B3.3.1: Gaps in Networked Water Supply and Sanitation Services between Capital City and Other Areas
Figure B3.3.2: Water Risks Are Associated with Higher Spatial Inequality in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Figure 3.9: Share of International Migrant Population by Frequency of Access to Public Drinking Water Supply
Figure 3.10: Percentage of Lebanese Households Exposed to E. coli at Point of Consumption and Distribution
Figure 3.11: Access to Sanitation Services for Syrian Refugees, by Host Country and Location, 2017
Figure 3.12: Water Quality Trends and Number of Refugees in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon
Figure 3.13: Performance Data for Selected Utilities in Kurdistan Region of Iraq, 2011 and 2017
Figure 4.1: Approach for Development Actors to Promote Water Security for Forcibly Displaced People and Their Host Communities
Figure 4.2: Decision Points, Pathways, and Water Security Outcomes for Forcibly Displaced People and their Host Communities
Tables
Table 2.1: Examples of International Water Events in the Middle East and North Africa, Ranked on a Conflict/Cooperation Scale, 1948-2008
Table B.1: Number of Events Recorded in the WARICC Data Set by Event Type for Different Samples of the Full Data Set
Table B.2: Countries Involved and Number of Events Recorded in the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database by Event Type for Different Samples of the Full Data Set
Table C.1: Key Informants Interviewed as Part of This Study.