Towards Bayesian model-based demography : agency, complexity and uncertainty in migration studies / Jakub Bijak ; with contributions by Philip A. Higham [and eight others].
Bijak, Jakub, author.
2022
HB849.4 .B55 2022
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Title Towards Bayesian model-based demography : agency, complexity and uncertainty in migration studies / Jakub Bijak ; with contributions by Philip A. Higham [and eight others].
Author Bijak, Jakub, author.
ISBN 9783030830397 (electronic bk.)
303083039X (electronic bk.)
9783030830380
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83039-7
Published Cham : Springer, [2022]
Copyright ©2022
Language English
Description 1 online resource (xxv, 263 pages) : color illustrations
Item Number 10.1007/978-3-030-83039-7 doi
Call Number HB849.4 .B55 2022
Dewey Decimal Classification 304.6
Summary This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration - one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Bibliography, etc. Note Includes bibliographical references and index.
Access Note Open access
Source of Description Online resource; title from PDF title page (SpringerLink, viewed December 20, 2021).
Series Methodos series ; v. 17.
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Record Appears in Online Resources > Ebooks
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Part I: Preliminaries: Chapter 1. Introduction
Chapter 2. Uncertainty and complexity: towards model-based demography
Part II: Elements of the modelling process
Chapter 3. Principles and state of the art of agent-based migration modelling
Chapter 4. Building a knowledge base for the model
Chapter 5. Uncertainty quantification, model calibration and sensitivity
Chapter 6. The boundaries of cognition and decision making
Chapter 7. Agent-based modelling and simulation with domain-specific languages
Part III: Model results, applications, and reflections
Chapter 8. Towards more realistic models
Chapter 9. Bayesian model-based approach: impact on science and policy
Chapter 10. Open science, replicability, and transparency in modelling
Chapter 11. Conclusions: towards a Bayesian modelling process.

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