COVID-19 pandemic dynamics : mathematical simulations / Igor Nesteruk.
2021
RA644.C67
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Title
COVID-19 pandemic dynamics : mathematical simulations / Igor Nesteruk.
Author
ISBN
9789813364165 (electronic bk.)
9813364165 (electronic bk.)
9813364157
9789813364158
9813364165 (electronic bk.)
9813364157
9789813364158
Published
Singapore : Springer, [2021]
Language
English
Description
1 online resource
Item Number
10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5 doi
Call Number
RA644.C67
Dewey Decimal Classification
614.5/92414
Summary
This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics.
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Online resource; title from PDF title page (SpringerLink, viewed March 16, 2021).
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Print version: 9789813364158
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Table of Contents
Introduction
Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications
Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations
Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions
Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics
Conclusions.
Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications
Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations
Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions
Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics
Conclusions.