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001434392 001__ 1434392
001434392 003__ OCoLC
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001434392 019__ $$a1238162761$$a1244121883$$a1249944847$$a1259131520
001434392 020__ $$a3030464741$$q(electronic book)
001434392 020__ $$a9783030464745$$q(electronic bk.)
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001434392 020__ $$z9783030464738
001434392 0247_ $$a10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5$$2doi
001434392 035__ $$aSP(OCoLC)1239982100
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001434392 049__ $$aISEA
001434392 050_4 $$aQA279.4
001434392 08204 $$a519.5/42$$223
001434392 24500 $$aExpert judgement in risk and decision analysis /$$cAnca M. Hanea, Gabriela F. Nane, Tim Bedford, Simon French, editors.
001434392 264_1 $$aCham, Switzerland :$$bSpringer,$$c[2021]
001434392 300__ $$a1 online resource
001434392 336__ $$atext$$btxt$$2rdacontent
001434392 337__ $$acomputer$$bc$$2rdamedia
001434392 338__ $$aonline resource$$bcr$$2rdacarrier
001434392 347__ $$atext file
001434392 347__ $$bPDF
001434392 4901_ $$aInternational series in operations research and management science ;$$vvolume 293
001434392 504__ $$aIncludes bibliographical references.
001434392 5050_ $$aChapter 1. Introduction and Overview of Structured Expert Judgement -- Chapter 2. Recent advances in the elicitation of uncertainty distributions from experts for multinomial probabilities -- Chapter 3. Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis -- Chapter 4. Customized Structural Elicitation -- Chapter 5. Bayesian Modelling of Dependence between Experts: some Comparisons with the Cooke Model -- Chapter 6. Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization -- Chapter 7. Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structural Expert Judgement Modelling -- Chapter 8. A Number of Things -- Chapter 9. The Classical Model: the Early Years -- Chapter 10. An in-depth perspective on the Classical Model -- Chapter 11. Building on Foundations: an interview with Roger Cooke -- Chapter 12. Scientific advice: a personal perspective in dealing with uncertainty. An interview with Prof Dame Anne Glover -- Chapter 13. Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation -- Chapter 14. Developing Training Courses for Structured Expert Judgement -- Chapter 15. Expert judgment for geological hazards in New Zealand -- Chapter 16. Using the Classical Model for source attribution of pathogen caused illnesses -- Chapter 17. Reminiscences of a Classical Model expert elicitation facilitator -- Chapter 18. Dealing with imperfect elicitation results -- Chapter 19. Structured Expert Judgement for decisions on medicines policy and management -- Chapter 20. Structured Expert Judgement Issues in a Supply Chain Cyber Risk Management System -- Chapter 21. Structured Expert Judgement in adversarial risk assessment: An application of the Classical Model for assessing geo-political risk in the insurance underwriting industry -- Chapter 22. Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk Assessment -- Chapter 23. Decision-making in early internationalization: a structured expert judgment approach.
001434392 506__ $$aAccess limited to authorized users.
001434392 520__ $$aThis book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the "random expert" hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cookes oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise
001434392 588__ $$aOnline resource; title from PDF title page (SpringerLink, viewed March 19, 2021).
001434392 650_0 $$aDecision making$$xMathematical models.
001434392 650_0 $$aRisk assessment$$xMathematical models.
001434392 650_0 $$aProbabilities.
001434392 650_0 $$aUncertainty (Information theory)
001434392 650_6 $$aPrise de décision$$xModèles mathématiques.
001434392 650_6 $$aÉvaluation du risque$$xModèles mathématiques.
001434392 650_6 $$aProbabilités.
001434392 650_6 $$aIncertitude (Théorie de l'information)
001434392 655_0 $$aElectronic books.
001434392 7001_ $$aHanea, Anca M.,$$eeditor
001434392 7001_ $$aNane, Gabriela F.,$$eeditor
001434392 7001_ $$aBedford, T.,$$eeditor.
001434392 7001_ $$aFrench, Simon,$$d1950-$$eeditor.
001434392 77608 $$iPrint version:$$z9783030464738
001434392 830_0 $$aInternational series in operations research & management science ;$$v293.
001434392 852__ $$bebk
001434392 85640 $$3Springer Nature$$uhttps://univsouthin.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5$$zOnline Access$$91397441.1
001434392 909CO $$ooai:library.usi.edu:1434392$$pGLOBAL_SET
001434392 980__ $$aBIB
001434392 980__ $$aEBOOK
001434392 982__ $$aEbook
001434392 983__ $$aOnline
001434392 994__ $$a92$$bISE