The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States : 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future / John B. Guerard.
Guerard, John, author.
2022
HC106.84
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Title The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States : 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future / John B. Guerard.
Author Guerard, John, author.
ISBN 9783030994181 (electronic bk.)
303099418X (electronic bk.)
9783030994174
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1
Published Cham : Palgrave Macmillan, [2022]
Copyright ©2022
Language English
Description 1 online resource (xxiv, 650 pages) : illustrations (some color)
Other Standard Identifiers 10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1 doi
Call Number HC106.84
Dewey Decimal Classification 330.973
Summary In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy. This monograph explores time series forecasting and economic cycles using the Leading Economic Indicators, LEI, which are maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given the highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, the LEI series is particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles. John B. Guerard, Jr., is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board, where he previously served as Director of Quantitative Research in Anchorage, Alaska. John is affiliated with the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published in these journals as well as Management Science, and Annals of Operations Research.
Bibliography, etc. Note Includes bibliographical references and index.
Access Note Access limited to authorized users.
Source of Description Online resource; title from PDF title page (SpringerLink, viewed July 14, 2022).
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Chapter 1. Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the United States
Chapter 2. Mr. Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. and NBER Business Cycle Research
Chapter 3. Measuring Business Activity, An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein
Chapter 4. Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles
Chapter 5. Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research
Chapter 6. Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research
Chapter 7. Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy
Chapter 8. Granger-Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate
Chapter 9. Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID
Chapter 10. Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, data as of 11/05/2021
Chapter 11. Conclusions and Summary.

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