Uncertainty deconstructed : a guidebook for decision support practitioners / Bruce Garvey, Dowshan Humzah, Storm Le Roux.
Garvey, Bruce, author.; Humzah, Dowshan, author.; Le Roux, Storm, author.
2022
Q375
Available Online

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Title Uncertainty deconstructed : a guidebook for decision support practitioners / Bruce Garvey, Dowshan Humzah, Storm Le Roux.
Author Garvey, Bruce, author.
ISBN 9783031080074 (electronic bk.)
3031080076 (electronic bk.)
9783031080067
3031080068
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4
Published Cham : Springer, 2022.
Language English
Description 1 online resource : illustrations (black and white, and color).
Other Standard Identifiers 10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4 doi
Call Number Q375
Dewey Decimal Classification 003/.54
Summary This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term "unknown unknowns" is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are "known-unknowns" or "inevitable surprises". This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide.
Bibliography, etc. Note Includes bibliographical refererences.
Access Note Access limited to authorized users.
Source of Description Description based on print version record.
Added Author Humzah, Dowshan, author.
Le Roux, Storm, author.
Series Science, technology and innovation studies.
Available in Other Form Uncertainty deconstructed.
Linked Resources Online Access
Record Appears in Online Resources > Ebooks
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Part I: Introducing the Programme and its Contents
1. Setting the Scene and Introduction
Part II: Theoretical Underpinnings: Structural Components Of Uncertainty
2. Locating Uncertainty along the Risk Spectrum
3. Problem Status
4. Time-Based Criteria
5. The Evidence Base
6. Ways of Seeing the Future. Part III: Theoretical Underpinnings: Scenarios and their Role in Dealing With Uncertainty
7. Scenarios - What Are They, Why Are They Useful and How Can We Best Use Them?
8. Scenario Derivatives First, Second and Third Order Scenarios: Generic (Landscape) Variables
Part IV: Theoretical Underpinnings: Behaviour The Hidden Influencer In How We Deal With Uncertainty
9. Behavioural Factors: Cognitive Biases and Dissonance, Anomie, and Alienation (Or How We Humans Mess Things Up)
10. How to Mitigate the Impact of the Behavioural Minefield
Part V: Theory into Practice Reactive and Exploatory Scenarios and Case Studies
11. Reactive the Covid-19 Pandemic
12. An Exploratory Scenario Case Study Social Mobility and Inequality
13. Achieving Net Zero The Small Island Developing States (SIDs) Initiative: An Exploratory Investment Decision Support Framework to Help Address Uncertainty
14. Concluding Comments.

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