Linked e-resources
Details
Table of Contents
Front Cover
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Abbreviations
Main Messages
Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for global value chains
Measures for managing a crisis and the recovery
Main policy messages
References
1 Introduction and Overview
Experience from historical shocks
Scope and depth of the COVID-19 shock
Econometric evidence
Responses of firms and governments to supply chain shocks
Measures to maintain and enhance trade
Emerging climate change policies
Integration into the global economy and GVC participation remain key
Note
References
2 Lessons from Historical Shocks to GVCs
Key messages
Introduction
GVCs and the impact of shocks on trade
Impacts at the intensive and the extensive margins
Export survival
Network analysis
Conclusions
Notes
References
3 The COVID-19 Crisis and Trade Outcomes: A Review and Analysis of Major Trade Trends
Key messages
Introduction
Trends in trade and GDP
Short-term trade and GVC effects of the pandemic
Annex 3A Empirical strategy used to assess the short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade and GVCs
Notes
References
4 Responses of Firms and Governments to Supply Chain Shocks Surrounding COVID-19
Key messages
Introduction
Traditional supply chain management and its limitations
Issues revealed by COVID-19
Firm-level adaptations in 2020
Private sector views of the transition
Government responses to supply chain issues during COVID-19
Issues with the recovery: Containers, semiconductors, and overlapping shocks
Notes
References
5 The Key to COVID-19 Recovery and Poverty Alleviation: Globalization, Not Localization
Key messages
Introduction
Methodological framework and scenarios: Using data and tools to find answers.
Scenarios: COVID-19, climate change, and protectionist shocks to GVCs
The risks of GVC reshoring
The distributional impacts of reshoring
Climate change mitigation policies: Reshaping the comparative advantages of countries
Annex 5A Regional and sectoral aggregations in computable general equilibrium analysis
Notes
References
6 COVID-19 and the Reshaping of GVCs: Policy Messages for Resilient Trade-Driven Development
Key messages
Introduction
Appropriate trade policy responses during a global crisis and in the recovery
Reviewing trade policies for better management of future shocks
Trade and development in a more uncertain world
Notes
References
Boxes
Box 3.1 Vietnam's trade experience during the pandemic
Box 3.2 Impact of the COVID-19 shock on the export performance of Cambodian firms
Box 4.1 Global supply chain disruption in 2021: Causes, consequences, and solutions
Box 6.1 Dos and don'ts of trade policy responses to a global crisis: The COVID-19 pandemic
Figures
Figure 1.1 Trade and poverty reduction in low- and middle-income countries, 1990-2017
Figure 1.2 Effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies on global value chains
Figure 3.1 Volume and type of trade and GDP, 2005-20
Figure 3.2 Monthly year-over-year change in the value of goods and services trade, 2019-21
Figure 3.3 Share of borders closed, by region, May 2020-February 2021
Figure 3.4 Number of commercial flights, by month, 2019-21
Figure 3.5 Value, volume, and price of merchandise trade
Figure 3.6 Merchandise trade of major trading countries, 2020 vs. 2019
Figure 3.7 Imports of China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States, January 2019-February 2021
Figure 3.8 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade, 2019 and 2020.
Figure 3.9 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade of low-income countries, 2019 and 2020
Figure 3.10 Propensity for lost and new trade flows at the extensive margin, 2019 and 2020
Figure 3.11 Propensity for lost imports of inputs from China and other countries, by country income level, 2019 and 2020
Figure B3.2.1 Average firm survival rate in Cambodia, by type and size of firm, 2016 Q1 to 2020 Q3
Figure 3.12 China's share of global merchandise exports, 2002-20
Figure 3.13 China's share of global exports, by product group, 2002-19
Figure 3.14 Change in the share of global exports, by country or region and sector, 2011-19
Figure 3.15 Shares of mirror exports to four economies (China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States), by country and product group, 2019-20
Figure 3.16 Change in IPI and work mobility in exporting countries, February to June 2020
Figure 3.17 Change in IPI and export growth in exporting countries, February to June 2020
Figure 3.18 Change in IPI and import growth in partner countries, February to June 2020
Figure 3.19 A simplified framework of bilateral trade growth
Figure 3.20 Impact of demand, supply, and third-country COVID-19 shocks on bilateral export growth
Figure 3.21 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports across sectors, 2020
Figure 3.22 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports through global value chain channels
Figure 5.1 Computable general equilibrium modeling scenarios
Figure 5.2 Change in real income in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario
Figure 5.3 Real exports and real imports in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario
Figure 5.4 Real income compared with COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030.
Figure 5.5 Distributional impacts, by region and scenario, 2010-30
Figure 5.6 Reduction in extreme poverty in the GVC-friendly liberalization and TF imports scenario relative to pre-COVID-19 conditions, by region
Figure 5.7 Change in income of the bottom 40 percent and top 60 percent of the income distribution relative to the COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by scenario and region
Figure 5.8 Wages for unskilled females relative to rest of wages, 2030, by scenario and region
Figure 5.9 Change in CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to the pre-COVID-19 baseline: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and NDC targets, by region
Figure 5.10 Change in exports and imports due to the implementation of NDC policies, 2030 relative to the post-COVID-19 baseline, by region
Figure 5.11 Impacts of the CBAM on total exports by EU trading partners and carbon intensity of exports to the EU: 2030 relative to the EU Green Deal implementation scenario, by region
Figure 5.12 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on output in the EU: 2030 relative to the scenario with NDCs, by sector
Figure 5.13 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on EU imports, 2030 relative to scenario with NDCs, by sector
Figure 5.14 Impacts of CBAM on Europe and Central Asia, 2030
Figure 5.15 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline and GVC participation rate, by country and region
Figure 5.16 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline, by sector
Figure 5.17 Impacts of the CBAM on GVC participation for the electronics sector, by country and region
Maps
Map 3.1 COVID-19-related travel restrictions, February 2021
Map 6.1 Implementation status of COVID-19-related export curbs in the medical sector
Tables.
Table 3.1 Growth of exports and imports, by region and income group, 2020 vs. 2019
Table 3.2 Share of exiting trade flows that did not reappear by the end of the year, 2019 and 2020
Table 3A.1 Short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade: Regression coefficients for different samples of countries
Table 4.1 Top concerns of Chamber of Commerce members in Europe, 2019 and 2020
Table 5.1 Real income, real exports, and real imports compared with a COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030
Table 5.2 Top-three increases in export sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of exports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region
Table 5.3 Top-three increases in import sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of imports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region
Table 5.4 Number of people lifted from extreme poverty and joining the global middle class, by region and scenario
Table 5.5 Changes in output following NDC implementation, by sector and region
Table 5.6 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on selected sectors of EU trading partners relative to the scenario with NDCs, by region
Table 5A.1 Regional and sectoral aggressions in computable general equilibrium analysis.
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Abbreviations
Main Messages
Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for global value chains
Measures for managing a crisis and the recovery
Main policy messages
References
1 Introduction and Overview
Experience from historical shocks
Scope and depth of the COVID-19 shock
Econometric evidence
Responses of firms and governments to supply chain shocks
Measures to maintain and enhance trade
Emerging climate change policies
Integration into the global economy and GVC participation remain key
Note
References
2 Lessons from Historical Shocks to GVCs
Key messages
Introduction
GVCs and the impact of shocks on trade
Impacts at the intensive and the extensive margins
Export survival
Network analysis
Conclusions
Notes
References
3 The COVID-19 Crisis and Trade Outcomes: A Review and Analysis of Major Trade Trends
Key messages
Introduction
Trends in trade and GDP
Short-term trade and GVC effects of the pandemic
Annex 3A Empirical strategy used to assess the short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade and GVCs
Notes
References
4 Responses of Firms and Governments to Supply Chain Shocks Surrounding COVID-19
Key messages
Introduction
Traditional supply chain management and its limitations
Issues revealed by COVID-19
Firm-level adaptations in 2020
Private sector views of the transition
Government responses to supply chain issues during COVID-19
Issues with the recovery: Containers, semiconductors, and overlapping shocks
Notes
References
5 The Key to COVID-19 Recovery and Poverty Alleviation: Globalization, Not Localization
Key messages
Introduction
Methodological framework and scenarios: Using data and tools to find answers.
Scenarios: COVID-19, climate change, and protectionist shocks to GVCs
The risks of GVC reshoring
The distributional impacts of reshoring
Climate change mitigation policies: Reshaping the comparative advantages of countries
Annex 5A Regional and sectoral aggregations in computable general equilibrium analysis
Notes
References
6 COVID-19 and the Reshaping of GVCs: Policy Messages for Resilient Trade-Driven Development
Key messages
Introduction
Appropriate trade policy responses during a global crisis and in the recovery
Reviewing trade policies for better management of future shocks
Trade and development in a more uncertain world
Notes
References
Boxes
Box 3.1 Vietnam's trade experience during the pandemic
Box 3.2 Impact of the COVID-19 shock on the export performance of Cambodian firms
Box 4.1 Global supply chain disruption in 2021: Causes, consequences, and solutions
Box 6.1 Dos and don'ts of trade policy responses to a global crisis: The COVID-19 pandemic
Figures
Figure 1.1 Trade and poverty reduction in low- and middle-income countries, 1990-2017
Figure 1.2 Effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies on global value chains
Figure 3.1 Volume and type of trade and GDP, 2005-20
Figure 3.2 Monthly year-over-year change in the value of goods and services trade, 2019-21
Figure 3.3 Share of borders closed, by region, May 2020-February 2021
Figure 3.4 Number of commercial flights, by month, 2019-21
Figure 3.5 Value, volume, and price of merchandise trade
Figure 3.6 Merchandise trade of major trading countries, 2020 vs. 2019
Figure 3.7 Imports of China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States, January 2019-February 2021
Figure 3.8 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade, 2019 and 2020.
Figure 3.9 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade of low-income countries, 2019 and 2020
Figure 3.10 Propensity for lost and new trade flows at the extensive margin, 2019 and 2020
Figure 3.11 Propensity for lost imports of inputs from China and other countries, by country income level, 2019 and 2020
Figure B3.2.1 Average firm survival rate in Cambodia, by type and size of firm, 2016 Q1 to 2020 Q3
Figure 3.12 China's share of global merchandise exports, 2002-20
Figure 3.13 China's share of global exports, by product group, 2002-19
Figure 3.14 Change in the share of global exports, by country or region and sector, 2011-19
Figure 3.15 Shares of mirror exports to four economies (China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States), by country and product group, 2019-20
Figure 3.16 Change in IPI and work mobility in exporting countries, February to June 2020
Figure 3.17 Change in IPI and export growth in exporting countries, February to June 2020
Figure 3.18 Change in IPI and import growth in partner countries, February to June 2020
Figure 3.19 A simplified framework of bilateral trade growth
Figure 3.20 Impact of demand, supply, and third-country COVID-19 shocks on bilateral export growth
Figure 3.21 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports across sectors, 2020
Figure 3.22 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports through global value chain channels
Figure 5.1 Computable general equilibrium modeling scenarios
Figure 5.2 Change in real income in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario
Figure 5.3 Real exports and real imports in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario
Figure 5.4 Real income compared with COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030.
Figure 5.5 Distributional impacts, by region and scenario, 2010-30
Figure 5.6 Reduction in extreme poverty in the GVC-friendly liberalization and TF imports scenario relative to pre-COVID-19 conditions, by region
Figure 5.7 Change in income of the bottom 40 percent and top 60 percent of the income distribution relative to the COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by scenario and region
Figure 5.8 Wages for unskilled females relative to rest of wages, 2030, by scenario and region
Figure 5.9 Change in CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to the pre-COVID-19 baseline: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and NDC targets, by region
Figure 5.10 Change in exports and imports due to the implementation of NDC policies, 2030 relative to the post-COVID-19 baseline, by region
Figure 5.11 Impacts of the CBAM on total exports by EU trading partners and carbon intensity of exports to the EU: 2030 relative to the EU Green Deal implementation scenario, by region
Figure 5.12 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on output in the EU: 2030 relative to the scenario with NDCs, by sector
Figure 5.13 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on EU imports, 2030 relative to scenario with NDCs, by sector
Figure 5.14 Impacts of CBAM on Europe and Central Asia, 2030
Figure 5.15 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline and GVC participation rate, by country and region
Figure 5.16 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline, by sector
Figure 5.17 Impacts of the CBAM on GVC participation for the electronics sector, by country and region
Maps
Map 3.1 COVID-19-related travel restrictions, February 2021
Map 6.1 Implementation status of COVID-19-related export curbs in the medical sector
Tables.
Table 3.1 Growth of exports and imports, by region and income group, 2020 vs. 2019
Table 3.2 Share of exiting trade flows that did not reappear by the end of the year, 2019 and 2020
Table 3A.1 Short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade: Regression coefficients for different samples of countries
Table 4.1 Top concerns of Chamber of Commerce members in Europe, 2019 and 2020
Table 5.1 Real income, real exports, and real imports compared with a COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030
Table 5.2 Top-three increases in export sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of exports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region
Table 5.3 Top-three increases in import sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of imports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region
Table 5.4 Number of people lifted from extreme poverty and joining the global middle class, by region and scenario
Table 5.5 Changes in output following NDC implementation, by sector and region
Table 5.6 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on selected sectors of EU trading partners relative to the scenario with NDCs, by region
Table 5A.1 Regional and sectoral aggressions in computable general equilibrium analysis.