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Table of Contents
Intro
Foreword to the First Edition
Preface to the Second Edition
References
Praise for Managing Complexity in Social Systems
Contents
About the Author
1 Preface: Scientific Journey into a Strange Paradigm
References
Part I From Logic to Circular Causality
2 Perceiving Events, Patterns, and Structure
Perceiving Events
Perceiving Patterns
Perceiving Structures
References
3 Equilibrium, Resilience, and Emergence
Equilibrium
Resilience
Emergence
References
4 Prediction, Butterfly Effect, and Decision-Making
Butterfly Effect
Scenario Analysis
Decision-Making
References
Part II Describing and Understanding Dynamics of Social Systems
5 Language, Syntax, and Semantics for Describing Dynamics of Systems
Stocks
Flows
Elements and Constants
Positive and Negative Causal Links
Reinforcing and Balancing Causal Loops
Circular Causality
Delays
Sources and Sinks
Structures of Systems
References
6 Stock-Flow Failure: Climate Neutrality and Net-Zero Emissions
References
7 Leverage Points: A Paradigm Shift in Governance
Level of Stocks
Size of Flows
Length of Delays
Strength of Balancing Causal Loops
Duration of Reinforcing Causal Loops
Information as Causal Links
Rules and Structure of the System
Sources and Sinks
References
8 Tame, Wicked, and Super Wicked Systems Archetypes
References
Part III Managing Tame Systems Archetypes
9 Deterministic Chaos: Locust Plagues and Price Dynamics of Commodities
References
10 Shifting the Burden: When Organizations Become Addicted
Maintenance and Repair
Outsourcing
Nosocomial Infection
References
11 Accidental Adversaries: The Enigma of Sustained Cooperation
References
12 Adaptation: Invisible Hand, Breastfeeding, and Eroding Goals
Invisible Hand
Breastfeeding
Eroding Goals
References
13 Escalation: Dynamics of Mutual Distrust
References
Part IV Managing Wicked Systems Archetypes
14 Growth and Underinvestment: Aligning Performance and Resources
References
15 Policy Resistance: Rebound Effect and Other Fixes that Fail
Downs-Thomson Paradox
Rebound Effect or Jevons Paradox
The Debt Trap
References
16 Limits to Growth and Attractiveness Principle
Attractiveness Principle
References
17 Diffusion of Innovations: Spreading New Ideas and Technology
Bass Model
SIR Model
References
Part V Managing Super Wicked Systems Archetypes
18 Information Asymmetry: When Markets Fail
Used Cars Market
Securities Market
References
19 Tragedy of the Commons: There Ain't no Such Thing as a Free Lunch
Tragedy of an IT Department
Tragedy of the Atlantic Cod
Tragedy of the Easter Island
Coping with the Tragedy of the Commons
References
20 Path Dependence: Segregation, Increasing Returns, and Success to the Successful
Segregation
Increasing Returns
Foreword to the First Edition
Preface to the Second Edition
References
Praise for Managing Complexity in Social Systems
Contents
About the Author
1 Preface: Scientific Journey into a Strange Paradigm
References
Part I From Logic to Circular Causality
2 Perceiving Events, Patterns, and Structure
Perceiving Events
Perceiving Patterns
Perceiving Structures
References
3 Equilibrium, Resilience, and Emergence
Equilibrium
Resilience
Emergence
References
4 Prediction, Butterfly Effect, and Decision-Making
Butterfly Effect
Scenario Analysis
Decision-Making
References
Part II Describing and Understanding Dynamics of Social Systems
5 Language, Syntax, and Semantics for Describing Dynamics of Systems
Stocks
Flows
Elements and Constants
Positive and Negative Causal Links
Reinforcing and Balancing Causal Loops
Circular Causality
Delays
Sources and Sinks
Structures of Systems
References
6 Stock-Flow Failure: Climate Neutrality and Net-Zero Emissions
References
7 Leverage Points: A Paradigm Shift in Governance
Level of Stocks
Size of Flows
Length of Delays
Strength of Balancing Causal Loops
Duration of Reinforcing Causal Loops
Information as Causal Links
Rules and Structure of the System
Sources and Sinks
References
8 Tame, Wicked, and Super Wicked Systems Archetypes
References
Part III Managing Tame Systems Archetypes
9 Deterministic Chaos: Locust Plagues and Price Dynamics of Commodities
References
10 Shifting the Burden: When Organizations Become Addicted
Maintenance and Repair
Outsourcing
Nosocomial Infection
References
11 Accidental Adversaries: The Enigma of Sustained Cooperation
References
12 Adaptation: Invisible Hand, Breastfeeding, and Eroding Goals
Invisible Hand
Breastfeeding
Eroding Goals
References
13 Escalation: Dynamics of Mutual Distrust
References
Part IV Managing Wicked Systems Archetypes
14 Growth and Underinvestment: Aligning Performance and Resources
References
15 Policy Resistance: Rebound Effect and Other Fixes that Fail
Downs-Thomson Paradox
Rebound Effect or Jevons Paradox
The Debt Trap
References
16 Limits to Growth and Attractiveness Principle
Attractiveness Principle
References
17 Diffusion of Innovations: Spreading New Ideas and Technology
Bass Model
SIR Model
References
Part V Managing Super Wicked Systems Archetypes
18 Information Asymmetry: When Markets Fail
Used Cars Market
Securities Market
References
19 Tragedy of the Commons: There Ain't no Such Thing as a Free Lunch
Tragedy of an IT Department
Tragedy of the Atlantic Cod
Tragedy of the Easter Island
Coping with the Tragedy of the Commons
References
20 Path Dependence: Segregation, Increasing Returns, and Success to the Successful
Segregation
Increasing Returns