001478500 000__ 04925nam\a22007935i\4500 001478500 001__ 1478500 001478500 003__ DE-B1597 001478500 005__ 20231026034942.0 001478500 006__ m\\\\\o\\d\\\\\\\\ 001478500 007__ cr\un\nnnunnun 001478500 008__ 221201t20092004mau\\\\\o\\d\z\\\\\\eng\d 001478500 020__ $$a9780674039162 001478500 0247_ $$a10.4159/9780674039162$$2doi 001478500 035__ $$a(DE-B1597)589746 001478500 035__ $$a(OCoLC)1322125707 001478500 040__ $$aDE-B1597$$beng$$cDE-B1597$$erda 001478500 0410_ $$aeng 001478500 044__ $$amau$$cUS-MA 001478500 050_4 $$aU22.3 ǂb J64 2004eb 001478500 072_7 $$aPOL010000$$2bisacsh 001478500 08204 $$a355.02/7 001478500 1001_ $$aJohnson, Dominic D. P., $$eauthor.$$4aut$$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 001478500 24510 $$aOverconfidence and War :$$bThe Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions /$$cDominic D. P. Johnson. 001478500 264_1 $$aCambridge, MA : $$bHarvard University Press, $$c[2009] 001478500 264_4 $$c©2004 001478500 300__ $$a1 online resource (288 p.) 001478500 336__ $$atext$$btxt$$2rdacontent 001478500 337__ $$acomputer$$bc$$2rdamedia 001478500 338__ $$aonline resource$$bcr$$2rdacarrier 001478500 347__ $$atext file$$bPDF$$2rda 001478500 50500 $$tFrontmatter -- $$tContents -- $$t1 War and Illusions -- $$t2 Looking for Illusions -- $$t3 World War I -- $$t4 The Munich Crisis -- $$t5 The Cuban Missile Crisis -- $$t6 Vietnam -- $$t7 Vanity Dies Hard -- $$t8 Iraq, 2003 -- $$tAppendix -- $$tNotes -- $$tAcknowledgments -- $$tIndex 001478500 506__ $$aAccess limited to authorized users. 001478500 520__ $$aOpponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly. 001478500 538__ $$aMode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. 001478500 546__ $$aIn English. 001478500 5880_ $$aDescription based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 01. Dez 2022) 001478500 650_7 $$aPOLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory.$$2bisacsh 001478500 655_0 $$aElectronic books 001478500 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tHUP eBook Package Archive 1893-1999$$z9783110442212 001478500 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tHarvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013$$z9783110442205 001478500 852__ $$bebk 001478500 85640 $$3De Gruyter$$uhttps://univsouthin.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780674039162$$zOnline Access 001478500 909CO $$ooai:library.usi.edu:1478500$$pGLOBAL_SET 001478500 912__ $$a978-3-11-044220-5 Harvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013$$c2000$$d2013 001478500 912__ $$a978-3-11-044221-2 HUP eBook Package Archive 1893-1999$$c1893$$d1999 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_BACKALL 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_CL_SN 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_EBACKALL 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_EBKALL 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_ECL_SN 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_EEBKALL 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_ESSHALL 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_PPALL 001478500 912__ $$aEBA_SSHALL 001478500 912__ $$aGBV-deGruyter-alles 001478500 912__ $$aPDA11SSHE 001478500 912__ $$aPDA13ENGE 001478500 912__ $$aPDA17SSHEE 001478500 912__ $$aPDA5EBK 001478500 980__ $$aBIB 001478500 980__ $$aEBOOK 001478500 982__ $$aEbook 001478500 983__ $$aOnline