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Table of Contents
Frontmatter
Acknowledgments
Contents
Foreword
Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons
Introduction
Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack
1. The Essence of Surprise Attack
2. Information and Indicators
3. Intentions and Capabilities
Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis
4. Conceptions and Incoming Information
5. The Process of Analysis
Part III. The Environment
6. The Analyst and the Small Group
7. Organizational Obstacles
8. Intelligence and Decision Makers
Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable?
Notes
Bibliography
Index
Acknowledgments
Contents
Foreword
Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons
Introduction
Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack
1. The Essence of Surprise Attack
2. Information and Indicators
3. Intentions and Capabilities
Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis
4. Conceptions and Incoming Information
5. The Process of Analysis
Part III. The Environment
6. The Analyst and the Small Group
7. Organizational Obstacles
8. Intelligence and Decision Makers
Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable?
Notes
Bibliography
Index