@article{1479244,
      recid = {1479244},
      author = {Strevens, Michael, },
      title = {Tychomancy : Inferring Probability from Causal Structure  /},
      pages = {1 online resource (279 p.) :},
      abstract = {Tychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a  set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of  outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the  systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the  rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of  getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions  found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that  underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in  evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims  about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are  known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings:  they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that  allows us to navigate around the world safely in the  absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have  played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major  scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is  devoted to this historical role for probability inference  rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's  extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the  molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched  statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his  distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but  rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human  beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens  then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the  statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of  complex systems, contending in each case that these  elements of science could not have emerged when or how they  did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical  probabilities.},
      url = {http://library.usi.edu/record/1479244},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674075986},
}