TY  - GEN
N2  - Tychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities.
DO  - 10.4159/harvard.9780674075986
DO  - doi
AB  - Tychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities.
T1  - Tychomancy :Inferring Probability from Causal Structure /
AU  - Strevens, Michael, 
JF  - E-BOOK GESAMTPAKET / COMPLETE PACKAGE 2013
JF  - E-BOOK PACKAGE CHEMISTRY, MATERIALS SC., BIOL., GEOSC. 2013
JF  - E-BOOK PAKET CHEMIE, MATERIALWISS., BIOLOGIE, GEOWISS.  2013
JF  - HUP eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 (Canada)
JF  - Harvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013
EP  - ZDB-23-DGG
EP  - ZDB-23-DCM
LA  - eng
LA  - In English.
ID  - 1479244
KW  - Allgemeines, Wissenschaft.
KW  - Empiricism.
KW  - Inference.
KW  - Probabilities.
KW  - PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology.
KW  - SCIENCE / History.
KW  - SCIENCE / Philosophy & Social Aspects.
SN  - 9780674075986
TI  - Tychomancy :Inferring Probability from Causal Structure /
LK  - https://univsouthin.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780674075986
UR  - https://univsouthin.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780674075986
ER  -