001479244 000__ 06033nam\a22009255i\4500 001479244 001__ 1479244 001479244 003__ DE-B1597 001479244 005__ 20231026035018.0 001479244 006__ m\\\\\o\\d\\\\\\\\ 001479244 007__ cr\un\nnnunnun 001479244 008__ 210830t20132013mau\\\\\o\\d\z\\\\\\eng\d 001479244 019__ $$a(OCoLC)853269171 001479244 020__ $$a9780674075986 001479244 0247_ $$a10.4159/harvard.9780674075986$$2doi 001479244 035__ $$a(DE-B1597)209758 001479244 035__ $$a(OCoLC)843880768 001479244 040__ $$aDE-B1597$$beng$$cDE-B1597$$erda 001479244 0410_ $$aeng 001479244 044__ $$amau$$cUS-MA 001479244 072_7 $$aSCI075000$$2bisacsh 001479244 1001_ $$aStrevens, Michael, $$eauthor.$$4aut$$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 001479244 24510 $$aTychomancy :$$bInferring Probability from Causal Structure /$$cMichael Strevens. 001479244 264_1 $$aCambridge, MA : $$bHarvard University Press, $$c[2013] 001479244 264_4 $$c©2013 001479244 300__ $$a1 online resource (279 p.) :$$b18 line illustrations 001479244 336__ $$atext$$btxt$$2rdacontent 001479244 337__ $$acomputer$$bc$$2rdamedia 001479244 338__ $$aonline resource$$bcr$$2rdacarrier 001479244 347__ $$atext file$$bPDF$$2rda 001479244 50500 $$tFrontmatter -- $$tCONTENTS -- $$tFIGURES -- $$tAUTHOR'S NOTE -- $$tPHYSICAL INTUITION -- $$tI. 1859 -- $$t1. THE APRIORIST -- $$t2. THE HISTORICAL WAY -- $$t3. THE LOGICAL WAY -- $$t4 THE COGNITIVE WAY -- $$tII. EQUIDYNAMICS -- $$t5. STIRRING -- $$t6. SHAKING -- $$t7. BOUNCING -- $$t8. UNIFYING -- $$tIII. BEYOND PHYSICS -- $$t9. 1859 AGAIN -- $$t10. APPLIED BIOEQUIDYNAMICS -- $$t11. INACCURACY, ERROR, AND OTHER FLUCTUATIONS -- $$tIV. BEFORE AND AFTER -- $$t12. THE EXOGENOUS ZONE -- $$t13. THE ELEMENTS OF EQUIDYNAMICS -- $$t14. PREHISTORY AND META - HISTORY -- $$tNOTES -- $$tGLOSSARY -- $$tREFERENCES -- $$tINDEX 001479244 506__ $$aAccess limited to authorized users. 001479244 520__ $$aTychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities. 001479244 538__ $$aMode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. 001479244 546__ $$aIn English. 001479244 5880_ $$aDescription based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 30. Aug 2021) 001479244 650_0 $$aAllgemeines, Wissenschaft. 001479244 650_0 $$aEmpiricism. 001479244 650_0 $$aInference. 001479244 650_0 $$aProbabilities. 001479244 650_4 $$aPSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology. 001479244 650_4 $$aSCIENCE / History. 001479244 650_7 $$aSCIENCE / Philosophy & Social Aspects.$$2bisacsh 001479244 655_0 $$aElectronic books 001479244 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tE-BOOK GESAMTPAKET / COMPLETE PACKAGE 2013$$z9783110317350$$oZDB-23-DGG 001479244 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tE-BOOK PACKAGE CHEMISTRY, MATERIALS SC., BIOL., GEOSC. 2013$$z9783110317176 001479244 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tE-BOOK PAKET CHEMIE, MATERIALWISS., BIOLOGIE, GEOWISS. 2013$$z9783110317169$$oZDB-23-DCM 001479244 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tHUP eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 (Canada)$$z9783110756067 001479244 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tHarvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013$$z9783110442205 001479244 852__ $$bebk 001479244 85640 $$3De Gruyter$$uhttps://univsouthin.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780674075986$$zOnline Access 001479244 909CO $$ooai:library.usi.edu:1479244$$pGLOBAL_SET 001479244 912__ $$a978-3-11-031717-6 E-BOOK PACKAGE CHEMISTRY, MATERIALS SC., BIOL., GEOSC. 2013$$b2013 001479244 912__ $$a978-3-11-044220-5 Harvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013$$c2000$$d2013 001479244 912__ $$a978-3-11-075606-7 HUP eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 (Canada)$$b2013 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_BACKALL 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_CL_CHCOMSGSEN 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_EBACKALL 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_EBKALL 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_ECL_CHCOMSGSEN 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_EEBKALL 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_ESTMALL 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_PPALL 001479244 912__ $$aEBA_STMALL 001479244 912__ $$aGBV-deGruyter-alles 001479244 912__ $$aPDA12STME 001479244 912__ $$aPDA13ENGE 001479244 912__ $$aPDA18STMEE 001479244 912__ $$aPDA5EBK 001479244 912__ $$aZDB-23-DCM$$b2013 001479244 912__ $$aZDB-23-DGG$$b2013 001479244 980__ $$aBIB 001479244 980__ $$aEBOOK 001479244 982__ $$aEbook 001479244 983__ $$aOnline