Reconsidering the limits to growth : a report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome / Viktor Sadovnichy, Askar Akaev, Ilya Ilyin, Sergey Malkov, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, editors.
Sadovnichy, Viktor.; Akaev, A. A. (Askar Akaevich); Ilʹin, I. V. (Ilʹi͡a Vi͡acheslavovich), 1973-; Malkov, Sergey.; Grinin, Leonid.; Korotaev, A. V.
2023
HD75
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Title
Reconsidering the limits to growth : a report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome / Viktor Sadovnichy, Askar Akaev, Ilya Ilyin, Sergey Malkov, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, editors.
ISBN
9783031349997 (electronic bk.)
3031349997 (electronic bk.)
3031349989
9783031349980
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7
Publication Details
Cham : Springer, 2023.
Language
English
Description
1 online resource (540 p.).
Item Number
10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7 doi
Call Number
HD75
Dewey Decimal Classification
338.9
Summary
Echoing the famous "The Limits to Growth" report from 1972, this edited volume analyses the changes that the World System has undergone to the present, on the fiftieth anniversary of the original report. During the past fifty years, both the concept and understanding of these limits have significantly changed. This book highlights that the evolution of the World System has approached a new critical milestone, moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies no longer work as efficiently as before or even begin to function counterproductively, which leads the World System into a systemic crisis. The book discusses the transition of human society to a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. New approaches are needed for both, for the analysis of the global situation, and for forecasts. The book is based on an integrated approach including the world-systems, historical and evolutionary perspectives, as well as a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others. Through mathematical modeling, it defines the main vectors of transformations of the World System; makes a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of the society and the World System, while presenting horizons of changes from short-term to ultra-long-term; and presents different development scenarios as well as recommendations on how to achieve a transition to the most favorable scenario. The book will appeal to members and followers of the Club of Rome, policy-makers, as well as to scholars from various disciplines interested in a better understanding of the World System evolution, global futures, development studies, climate change, and future societies. .
Note
2 Medium-Term Forecasts (until the 2050-2060s)
Bibliography, etc. Note
References -- Part II: Problems, Forecasts, Solutions (Climate, Ecology, Demography, Aging) -- Climate and Energy: Energy Transition Scenarios and Global Temperature Changes Based on Current Technologies and Trends -- 1 Current Situation -- 2 Possible Scenarios for Further Development of the Situation -- References -- Ecology: Life in the ``Unstable Biosphere ́́-- 1 Current State -- 2 Prospects for Further Change in the Situation -- Appendix: Armed Conflicts and Environment -- References -- Demography: Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes -- 1 Current Situation
Access Note
Access limited to authorized users.
Source of Description
Online resource; title from PDF title page (SpringerLink, viewed October 12, 2023).
Added Author
Sadovnichy, Viktor.
Akaev, A. A. (Askar Akaevich)
Ilʹin, I. V. (Ilʹi͡a Vi͡acheslavovich), 1973-
Malkov, Sergey.
Grinin, Leonid.
Korotaev, A. V.
Series
World-systems evolution and global futures.
Available in Other Form
Reconsidering the Limits to Growth
Linked Resources
Online Access
Record Appears in
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Intro
Foreword: On to the Future
Acknowledgments
About This Book
Contents
Introduction: Hoping for the Future
References
Part I: Looking into the Past and the Future
Macrohistorical Approach
1 Macrohistorical Approach: Introduction
2 Natural and Climatic Factors
3 Technological Subsystem
4 Economic Subsystem
5 Demographic Subsystem
6 Social Subsystem
7 Political Subsystem
References
The Future Society and the Transition to It
1 Perspective and Brief Forecasts
2 Preliminary Conclusions
3 A Brief Forecast of Future Societal Variations

2 Demography as a Factor in World Development
2.1 The Impact of Demography on Climate
2.2 The Impact of Demography on the Environment
2.3 The Impact of Demographics on Technology
2.4 The Impact of Demographics on Economy
2.5 The Impact of Demography on the Social Sphere
2.6 The Impact of Demographics on Politics
3 Retrospective Analysis of Changes in the Demographic Sphere in the Historical Perspective (for the Last 8000 years)
4 Demographic Development Scenarios
References

Global Aging: An Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?
1 Statement of the Problem
2 Impact on Socio-economic Development: Challenges and Possible Responses
3 Is It Possible to Use the Problem of Aging as a Development Driver?
References
Part III: Problems, Forecasts, Solutions (Technology, Economics, Socio-Political Development)
Technologies: Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control
1 Current Situation
2 Technology as the Most Important Factor of Historical Development

3 Scenarios of Technological Development in the Twenty-First Century
References
Economics: Optimizing Growth
1 Current Situation
2 Prospects for Further Economic Development
References
Sociopolitical Transformations: A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society
1 Current Situation
2 Cybernetic Society: Super-Technogenic Society of the Elderly
3 Cybernetic Society: Options for Sociopolitical Development
4 How to Switch to a Favorable Development Scenario
References
Future Political Change. Toward a more Efficient World Order
1 Short-Term Forecasts (10-15 Years)

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