Fault lines after COVID-19 : global economic challenges and opportunities / Robert Z. Aliber, Már Gudmundsson, Gylfi Zoega, editors.
Már Guðmundsson.; Gylfi Zoega.; Aliber, Robert Z.
2023
HB74.P65 F38 2023
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Title Fault lines after COVID-19 : global economic challenges and opportunities / Robert Z. Aliber, Már Gudmundsson, Gylfi Zoega, editors.
ISBN 9783031264825 electronic book
3031264827 electronic book
3031264819
9783031264818
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26482-5
Published Cham : Palgrave Macmillan, 2023.
Language English
Description 1 online resource (360 pages)
Other Standard Identifiers 10.1007/978-3-031-26482-5 doi
Call Number HB74.P65 F38 2023
Dewey Decimal Classification 330.9052
Summary This book explores the central economic and political issues defining the modern world. With contributions from a number of world renowned economists, a range of topical debates are discussed in an accessible and practical manner. The topics discussed include the current economic and political backdrop, global economic shifts, challenges within central banking and financial integration, the international monetary and financial system, and geopolitical tensions. Particular attention is given to the transition to a low carbon economy, the perils of public debt, the post-COVID-19 recovery, and the conflict in Ukraine. This book aims to envisage the economic challenges and opportunities that will be faced in the years to come. It will be relevant to students, researchers, and policymakers interested in economic policy and the political economy. Chapter-No.17 is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com. Robert Z. Aliber is Professor Emeritus at the University of Chicago. He has written extensively about exchange rates and cross border investment inflows. He developed the Center for Studies in International Finance at the University of Chicago and was the founding chair of the Committee for Public Policy Studies. He published The International Money Game in 1974 and brought out three editions of Manias, Panics, and Crashes. Amongst his other books are Money, Banking, and the Economy and The Multinational Paradigm. Gylfi Zoega is a Professor of Economics at the University of Iceland and Birkbeck College, London. He has written on the financial crisis in Iceland and taken part in the recovery effort as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of its central bank. His research is focused on unemployment, economic growth, and financial turbulence. He co-edited Preludes to the Icelandic Financial Crisis and The 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect with Robert Z. Aliber and recently published Dynamism with Hian Teck Hoon and Edmund Phelps. Már Gudmundsson was the Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland from 2009 to 2019, the Deputy Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) 2004-2009, and the Chief Economist of the Central Bank of Iceland 1994-2004. His published research includes cross-border financial integration, exchange rate regimes, financial stability, monetary policy, and pensions. He has recently been contributing to SEACENþs project on challenges and options in managing capital flows.
Note Warning Signs: Evidence of Dollar Funding Stress in March 2020
Access Note Access limited to authorized users.
Added Author Már Guðmundsson.
Gylfi Zoega.
Aliber, Robert Z.
Available in Other Form Fault Lines after COVID-19
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Intro
Contents
Notes on Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction
Part I: Challenges Ahead
What Next for the Post Covid Global Economy: Could Negative Supply Shocks Disrupt Other Fragile Systems?
The Nature of the Policy Problem
Could Economic Stability Be Threatened by Negative Supply Shocks?
Indicators of Underlying Fragility
Supply-Side Shocks to Date and the Policy Reaction
Further Negative Supply-Side Shocks and the Implications for Future Inflation
Could Political Stability Be Threatened by Economic Instability?

Indicators of Underlying Fragility
More Direct Evidence That Democracy Is Under Threat
What Policy Measures Might Help Restore Stability?
References
Historical Roots, Cultural Selection and the 'New World Order'
Introduction
Three Post-war Eras
The First Era (i.e. the Three Decades Following the End of World War II in 1945)
The Second Era (i.e. the Thirty Years Following 1975)
The Third Era (Where We Are Now After 2005)
Four Perspectives
First Perspective: Fukuyama's Prediction of 'Immaculate Convergence'

Second Perspective: Gerard Roland's Postulate of Cultural Determinism
Third Perspective: Non-cooperative Game Theory
Fourth Perspective: Darwinian Cultural Competition
A Focus on Russia
The First Perspective-Fukuyama's Forecast
Second-The Role of History
The Third Perspective-On Life Outside the Narrow Corridor
The Fourth Perspective: Cultural Competition
Conclusion: History Matters, but Cultures Evolve-In Competition
Epilogue
Annex: On USSR/Russian Governance 1990-2019: Gorbachev, followed by Yeltsin, then Putin
References
Part II: China

President Xi's Perfect Storm
The Andy Warhol Theory of Economic Growth
China's Population Dynamics
The Crash in the China Real Estate Market
The Most Expensive Bailout in History
Economic Decoupling and the Shrinking of China's International Competitive Advantage
Financial Decoupling-The Impact of the Perfect Storm on China's Trading Partners
Conclusion
References
Growth Without Democracy: Has China's Time of Rapid Growth Come to an End?
Why Did China Change Course Early in the Twenty-First Century?
President Xi Jinping's New Strategy

New Political Institutions and Policy
New Economic Institutions and Policy
The Long-Term Outlook
The Dictator's Dilemma and Cyber Dictatorship
Growth Theory and Proximate Causes of Growth
Conclusion
References
Denunciations in Autocratic Regimes: How and When Do They Work
A Theoretical Approach to Denunciation
Denunciation in the Volunteer Model
Denunciations in the Coercion Model
Coercion or Volunteer Model?
A Community for Denunciations
Conclusion
References
Dollar Funding Stresses in China

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