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Table of Contents
Intro
Contents
Notes on Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction
Part I: Challenges Ahead
What Next for the Post Covid Global Economy: Could Negative Supply Shocks Disrupt Other Fragile Systems?
The Nature of the Policy Problem
Could Economic Stability Be Threatened by Negative Supply Shocks?
Indicators of Underlying Fragility
Supply-Side Shocks to Date and the Policy Reaction
Further Negative Supply-Side Shocks and the Implications for Future Inflation
Could Political Stability Be Threatened by Economic Instability?
Indicators of Underlying Fragility
More Direct Evidence That Democracy Is Under Threat
What Policy Measures Might Help Restore Stability?
References
Historical Roots, Cultural Selection and the 'New World Order'
Introduction
Three Post-war Eras
The First Era (i.e. the Three Decades Following the End of World War II in 1945)
The Second Era (i.e. the Thirty Years Following 1975)
The Third Era (Where We Are Now After 2005)
Four Perspectives
First Perspective: Fukuyama's Prediction of 'Immaculate Convergence'
Second Perspective: Gerard Roland's Postulate of Cultural Determinism
Third Perspective: Non-cooperative Game Theory
Fourth Perspective: Darwinian Cultural Competition
A Focus on Russia
The First Perspective-Fukuyama's Forecast
Second-The Role of History
The Third Perspective-On Life Outside the Narrow Corridor
The Fourth Perspective: Cultural Competition
Conclusion: History Matters, but Cultures Evolve-In Competition
Epilogue
Annex: On USSR/Russian Governance 1990-2019: Gorbachev, followed by Yeltsin, then Putin
References
Part II: China
President Xi's Perfect Storm
The Andy Warhol Theory of Economic Growth
China's Population Dynamics
The Crash in the China Real Estate Market
The Most Expensive Bailout in History
Economic Decoupling and the Shrinking of China's International Competitive Advantage
Financial Decoupling-The Impact of the Perfect Storm on China's Trading Partners
Conclusion
References
Growth Without Democracy: Has China's Time of Rapid Growth Come to an End?
Why Did China Change Course Early in the Twenty-First Century?
President Xi Jinping's New Strategy
New Political Institutions and Policy
New Economic Institutions and Policy
The Long-Term Outlook
The Dictator's Dilemma and Cyber Dictatorship
Growth Theory and Proximate Causes of Growth
Conclusion
References
Denunciations in Autocratic Regimes: How and When Do They Work
A Theoretical Approach to Denunciation
Denunciation in the Volunteer Model
Denunciations in the Coercion Model
Coercion or Volunteer Model?
A Community for Denunciations
Conclusion
References
Dollar Funding Stresses in China
Contents
Notes on Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction
Part I: Challenges Ahead
What Next for the Post Covid Global Economy: Could Negative Supply Shocks Disrupt Other Fragile Systems?
The Nature of the Policy Problem
Could Economic Stability Be Threatened by Negative Supply Shocks?
Indicators of Underlying Fragility
Supply-Side Shocks to Date and the Policy Reaction
Further Negative Supply-Side Shocks and the Implications for Future Inflation
Could Political Stability Be Threatened by Economic Instability?
Indicators of Underlying Fragility
More Direct Evidence That Democracy Is Under Threat
What Policy Measures Might Help Restore Stability?
References
Historical Roots, Cultural Selection and the 'New World Order'
Introduction
Three Post-war Eras
The First Era (i.e. the Three Decades Following the End of World War II in 1945)
The Second Era (i.e. the Thirty Years Following 1975)
The Third Era (Where We Are Now After 2005)
Four Perspectives
First Perspective: Fukuyama's Prediction of 'Immaculate Convergence'
Second Perspective: Gerard Roland's Postulate of Cultural Determinism
Third Perspective: Non-cooperative Game Theory
Fourth Perspective: Darwinian Cultural Competition
A Focus on Russia
The First Perspective-Fukuyama's Forecast
Second-The Role of History
The Third Perspective-On Life Outside the Narrow Corridor
The Fourth Perspective: Cultural Competition
Conclusion: History Matters, but Cultures Evolve-In Competition
Epilogue
Annex: On USSR/Russian Governance 1990-2019: Gorbachev, followed by Yeltsin, then Putin
References
Part II: China
President Xi's Perfect Storm
The Andy Warhol Theory of Economic Growth
China's Population Dynamics
The Crash in the China Real Estate Market
The Most Expensive Bailout in History
Economic Decoupling and the Shrinking of China's International Competitive Advantage
Financial Decoupling-The Impact of the Perfect Storm on China's Trading Partners
Conclusion
References
Growth Without Democracy: Has China's Time of Rapid Growth Come to an End?
Why Did China Change Course Early in the Twenty-First Century?
President Xi Jinping's New Strategy
New Political Institutions and Policy
New Economic Institutions and Policy
The Long-Term Outlook
The Dictator's Dilemma and Cyber Dictatorship
Growth Theory and Proximate Causes of Growth
Conclusion
References
Denunciations in Autocratic Regimes: How and When Do They Work
A Theoretical Approach to Denunciation
Denunciation in the Volunteer Model
Denunciations in the Coercion Model
Coercion or Volunteer Model?
A Community for Denunciations
Conclusion
References
Dollar Funding Stresses in China