001481728 000__ 04938nam\a22008895i\4500 001481728 001__ 1481728 001481728 003__ DE-B1597 001481728 005__ 20231108100814.0 001481728 006__ m\\\\\o\\d\\\\\\\\ 001481728 007__ cr\un\nnnunnun 001481728 008__ 231108t20132013mau\\\\\o\\d\z\\\\\\eng\d 001481728 019__ $$a(OCoLC)979629183 001481728 020__ $$a9780674067547 001481728 0247_ $$a10.4159/harvard.9780674067547$$2doi 001481728 035__ $$a(DE-B1597)178009 001481728 035__ $$a(OCoLC)826895100 001481728 040__ $$aDE-B1597$$beng$$cDE-B1597$$erda 001481728 0410_ $$aeng 001481728 044__ $$amau$$cUS-MA 001481728 072_7 $$aPOL028000$$2bisacsh 001481728 1001_ $$aManski, Charles F.,$$eauthor.$$4aut$$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 001481728 24510 $$aPublic Policy in an Uncertain World :$$bAnalysis and Decisions /$$cCharles F. Manski. 001481728 264_1 $$aCambridge, MA :$$bHarvard University Press,$$c[2013] 001481728 264_4 $$c©2013 001481728 300__ $$a1 online resource (162 p.) :$$b1 graph, 3 tables 001481728 336__ $$atext$$btxt$$2rdacontent 001481728 337__ $$acomputer$$bc$$2rdamedia 001481728 338__ $$aonline resource$$bcr$$2rdacarrier 001481728 347__ $$atext file$$bPDF$$2rda 001481728 50500 $$tFrontmatter --$$tContents --$$tPreface --$$tIntroduction --$$tI POLICY ANALYSIS --$$t1 Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude --$$t2 Predicting Policy Outcomes --$$t3 Predicting Behavior --$$tII POLICY DECISIONS --$$t4 Planning with Partial Knowledge --$$t5 Diversified Treatment Choice --$$t6 Policy Analysis and Decisions --$$tAppendix A: Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox --$$tAppendix B: The Minimax- Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation --$$tAppendix C: Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both Treatments --$$tReferences --$$tIndex 001481728 506__ $$aAccess limited to authorized users. 001481728 520__ $$aPublic policy advocates routinely assert that "research has shown" a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude. 001481728 538__ $$aMode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. 001481728 546__ $$aIn English. 001481728 5880_ $$aDescription based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 30. Aug 2021) 001481728 650_7 $$aPOLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / General.$$2bisacsh 001481728 655_0 $$aElectronic books 001481728 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tE-BOOK GESAMTPAKET / COMPLETE PACKAGE 2013$$z9783110317350$$oZDB-23-DGG 001481728 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tE-BOOK PACKAGE HISTORY, POLITICAL SCIENCE, SOCIOLOGY 2013$$z9783110317121 001481728 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tE-BOOK PAKET GESCHICHTE, POLITIKWISS., SOZIOLOGIE 2013$$z9783110317114$$oZDB-23-DPS 001481728 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tHUP eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 (Canada)$$z9783110756067 001481728 77308 $$iTitle is part of eBook package:$$dDe Gruyter$$tHarvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013$$z9783110442205 001481728 852__ $$bebk 001481728 85640 $$3De Gruyter$$uhttps://univsouthin.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780674067547$$zOnline Access 001481728 909CO $$ooai:library.usi.edu:1398567$$pGLOBAL_SET 001481728 912__ $$a978-3-11-031712-1 E-BOOK PACKAGE HISTORY, POLITICAL SCIENCE, SOCIOLOGY 2013$$b2013 001481728 912__ $$a978-3-11-044220-5 Harvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013$$c2000$$d2013 001481728 912__ $$a978-3-11-075606-7 HUP eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 (Canada)$$b2013 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_BACKALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_CL_SN 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_EBACKALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_EBKALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_ECL_SN 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_EEBKALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_ESSHALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_PPALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_SSHALL 001481728 912__ $$aEBA_STMALL 001481728 912__ $$aGBV-deGruyter-alles 001481728 912__ $$aPDA11SSHE 001481728 912__ $$aPDA12STME 001481728 912__ $$aPDA13ENGE 001481728 912__ $$aPDA17SSHEE 001481728 912__ $$aPDA5EBK 001481728 912__ $$aZDB-23-DGG$$b2013 001481728 912__ $$aZDB-23-DPS$$b2013 001481728 980__ $$aBIB 001481728 980__ $$aEBOOK 001481728 982__ $$aEbook 001481728 983__ $$aOnline