000337158 000__ 01464cam\a2200301\a\4500
000337158 001__ 337158
000337158 005__ 20210513122843.0
000337158 008__ 091015s2010\\\\nyua\\\\\b\\\\001\0\eng\\
000337158 010__ $$a  2009041215
000337158 020__ $$a9780231150484 (alk. paper)
000337158 020__ $$a0231150482 (alk. paper)
000337158 035__ $$a(OCoLC)ocn320798612
000337158 035__ $$a337158
000337158 040__ $$aDLC$$cDLC$$dYDX$$dBTCTA$$dUKM$$dYDXCP$$dBWX$$dCDX$$dISE
000337158 049__ $$aISEA
000337158 05000 $$aHG4529$$b.P67 2010
000337158 08200 $$a332.63/2042$$222
000337158 1001_ $$aPosner, Kenneth A.
000337158 24510 $$aStalking the black swan :$$bresearch and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /$$cKenneth A. Posner.
000337158 260__ $$aNew York :$$bColumbia University Press,$$cc2010.
000337158 300__ $$axv, 267 p. :$$bill. ;$$c24 cm.
000337158 440_0 $$aColumbia Business School Publishing.
000337158 504__ $$aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
000337158 5050_ $$aForecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.
000337158 650_0 $$aInvestment analysis.
000337158 650_0 $$aInvestments$$xForecasting.
000337158 650_0 $$aBusiness cycles.
000337158 650_0 $$aRecessions.
000337158 85200 $$bgen$$hHG4529$$i.P67$$i2010
000337158 909CO $$ooai:library.usi.edu:337158$$pGLOBAL_SET
000337158 980__ $$aBIB
000337158 980__ $$aBOOK