000732033 000__ 03749cam\a22003738i\4500
000732033 001__ 732033
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000732033 008__ 150506s2015\\\\nyu\\\\\\b\\\\001\0\eng\\
000732033 010__ $$a  2015007310
000732033 019__ $$a921932489
000732033 020__ $$a9780804136693$$qhardcover
000732033 020__ $$a0804136696$$qhardcover
000732033 020__ $$a9780804136716$$qpaperback
000732033 020__ $$a0804136718$$qpaperback
000732033 020__ $$z9780804136709$$qelectronic book
000732033 035__ $$a(OCoLC)ocn898909721
000732033 040__ $$aDLC$$beng$$erda$$cDLC$$dYDXCP$$dBTCTA$$dBDX$$dOCLCF$$dON8$$dTUU$$dCDX$$dIK2$$dUAF$$dILI$$dMLY
000732033 042__ $$apcc
000732033 049__ $$aISEA
000732033 05000 $$aHB3730$$b.T47 2015
000732033 08200 $$a303.49$$223
000732033 1001_ $$aTetlock, Philip E.$$q(Philip Eyrikson),$$d1954-
000732033 24510 $$aSuperforecasting :$$bthe art and science of prediction /$$cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
000732033 264_1 $$aNew York :$$bCrown,$$c2015.
000732033 300__ $$a340 pages ;$$c25 cm
000732033 336__ $$atext$$2rdacontent
000732033 337__ $$aunmediated$$2rdamedia
000732033 338__ $$avolume$$2rdacarrier
000732033 504__ $$aIncludes bibliographical references pages [291]-328 and index.
000732033 5050_ $$aAn Optimistic Skeptic -- Illusions of Knowledge -- Keeping Score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual Beta -- Superteams -- The Leader's Dilemma -- Are They Really So Super? -- What's Next? -- Epilogue -- An Invitation -- Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters.
000732033 520__ $$a"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--$$cProvided by publisher.
000732033 650_0 $$aEconomic forecasting.
000732033 650_0 $$aForecasting.
000732033 7001_ $$aGardner, Dan,$$d1968-
000732033 85200 $$bgen$$hHB3730$$i.T47$$i2015
000732033 909CO $$ooai:library.usi.edu:732033$$pGLOBAL_SET
000732033 980__ $$aBIB
000732033 980__ $$aBOOK