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Table of Contents
Acknowledgments; Contents; Authors; 1: Introduction; 1.1 Why This Book?; 1.2 foresight, Foresight-and Foresight for STI; 2: Foresight for STI: What and Why; 2.1 The Nature of Foresight and ForSTI; 2.2 The Origins of ForSTI; 2.3 ForSTI as a Process; 3: Initiation: Scoping and Managing ForSTI; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Twelve Elements of Scoping; 3.3 Conclusions; 4: Interaction: Participation and Recruitment; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Panels: The Heart of ForSTI; 4.2.1 Working with Panels in ForSTI: Seven Steps; 4.2.2 Ways of Working with Panels; 4.3 Common Interaction Methods; 4.3.1 Brainstorming.
Box 4.1: Participant Notes on Brainstorming4.3.2 Mind-Mapping; Box 4.2: Mind-Mapping Stages; 4.4 Conclusions; 5: Intelligence: Environmental and Horizon Scanning; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Environmental Scanning; Box 5.1: STEEPV Acronym; 5.3 Horizon Scanning; 5.3.1 Trends; Box 5.2: Examples of Trends; 5.3.2 Drivers; Box 5.3: Examples of Drivers; 5.3.3 Weak Signals; Box 5.4: Examples of Weak Signals; 5.3.4 Wild Cards; Box 5.5: Examples of Wild Cards; 5.3.5 Discontinuities; Box 5.6: Examples of Discontinuities; Box 5.7: An Example for Comparing HS Terminology.
Box 5.8: Horizon Scanning in Health: UK Example 5.4 Tools for Environmental and Horizon Scanning; 5.4.1 Reviewing; Box 5.9: A Selection of Sources on Horizon Scanning, Wild Cards, and Related Techniques; 5.4.2 Brainstorming for Scanning; Box 5.10: Tasks for STEEPV Brainstorming to Identify Drivers of Change; TASK 1B: Working with the Outputs of STEEPV Brainstorming; TASK 2; TASK 2B: STEEPV Voting-Importance; TASK 2C: Top STEEPV Items; TASK 2D: STEEPV Voting-Uncertainty; 5.4.3 Surveys; 5.4.4 Big Data, Bibliometrics and Semantic Analysis; Box 5.11: Data Analysis Terms Defined.
Box 5.12: Identification of the Trends in the Use of ForSTI Methods Through a Scientometric Analysis5.4.5 Network Analysis; 5.5 Conclusions; 6: Intelligence: Delphi; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 Applications of the Delphi Method; 6.3 Resources Needed for Delphi; 6.4 Delphi Process; 6.4.1 Preparatory Work; 6.4.2 Formulation of Topic Statements; 6.4.3 Formulation of Questions to Be Asked About the Topic Statements; 6.4.4 Survey Implementation; 6.4.5 Analysis and Dissemination of Results; Box 6.1: Delphi Survey
An International Case Study; Box 6.2: Delphi Survey
A National Case Study.
6.5 Types of Delphi Surveys6.5.1 ``Standard ́́Delphi 1: Forecasting ``What ́́and ``When;́́ 6.5.2 ``Standard ́́Delphi 2: Forecasting ``How Far;́́ 6.5.3 ``Impacts ́́Delphi; Box 6.3: European Knowledge Society Foresight Delphi Survey; 6.5.4 ``Policy ́́Delphi; 6.5.5 ``Multiple Scenarios ́́Delphi; 6.5.6 Other Types of Delphi; 6.6 Conclusions; 7: Imagination: Scenarios and Alternative Futures; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Introducing Scenarios; 7.3 Scenarios: One or Many?; 7.4 Methods for Scenario Development; 7.5 Scenario Workshops; 7.6 Scenario Approaches; 7.7 Scenario Building and Analysis in Workshops.
Box 4.1: Participant Notes on Brainstorming4.3.2 Mind-Mapping; Box 4.2: Mind-Mapping Stages; 4.4 Conclusions; 5: Intelligence: Environmental and Horizon Scanning; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Environmental Scanning; Box 5.1: STEEPV Acronym; 5.3 Horizon Scanning; 5.3.1 Trends; Box 5.2: Examples of Trends; 5.3.2 Drivers; Box 5.3: Examples of Drivers; 5.3.3 Weak Signals; Box 5.4: Examples of Weak Signals; 5.3.4 Wild Cards; Box 5.5: Examples of Wild Cards; 5.3.5 Discontinuities; Box 5.6: Examples of Discontinuities; Box 5.7: An Example for Comparing HS Terminology.
Box 5.8: Horizon Scanning in Health: UK Example 5.4 Tools for Environmental and Horizon Scanning; 5.4.1 Reviewing; Box 5.9: A Selection of Sources on Horizon Scanning, Wild Cards, and Related Techniques; 5.4.2 Brainstorming for Scanning; Box 5.10: Tasks for STEEPV Brainstorming to Identify Drivers of Change; TASK 1B: Working with the Outputs of STEEPV Brainstorming; TASK 2; TASK 2B: STEEPV Voting-Importance; TASK 2C: Top STEEPV Items; TASK 2D: STEEPV Voting-Uncertainty; 5.4.3 Surveys; 5.4.4 Big Data, Bibliometrics and Semantic Analysis; Box 5.11: Data Analysis Terms Defined.
Box 5.12: Identification of the Trends in the Use of ForSTI Methods Through a Scientometric Analysis5.4.5 Network Analysis; 5.5 Conclusions; 6: Intelligence: Delphi; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 Applications of the Delphi Method; 6.3 Resources Needed for Delphi; 6.4 Delphi Process; 6.4.1 Preparatory Work; 6.4.2 Formulation of Topic Statements; 6.4.3 Formulation of Questions to Be Asked About the Topic Statements; 6.4.4 Survey Implementation; 6.4.5 Analysis and Dissemination of Results; Box 6.1: Delphi Survey
An International Case Study; Box 6.2: Delphi Survey
A National Case Study.
6.5 Types of Delphi Surveys6.5.1 ``Standard ́́Delphi 1: Forecasting ``What ́́and ``When;́́ 6.5.2 ``Standard ́́Delphi 2: Forecasting ``How Far;́́ 6.5.3 ``Impacts ́́Delphi; Box 6.3: European Knowledge Society Foresight Delphi Survey; 6.5.4 ``Policy ́́Delphi; 6.5.5 ``Multiple Scenarios ́́Delphi; 6.5.6 Other Types of Delphi; 6.6 Conclusions; 7: Imagination: Scenarios and Alternative Futures; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Introducing Scenarios; 7.3 Scenarios: One or Many?; 7.4 Methods for Scenario Development; 7.5 Scenario Workshops; 7.6 Scenario Approaches; 7.7 Scenario Building and Analysis in Workshops.