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Table of Contents
Dedication; Preface; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Chapter 1: Introduction; 1.1 The Rise of the BJP; 1.2 Political Instability during the 1990s; 1.3 The Rise of the Lower Castes; 1.4 Democracy and Secularism; 1.5 Democracy and National Unity; Notes; References; Chapter 2: The Anatomy of Indian Parliamentary Elections; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 The Election Commission of India; 2.3 India's Political Parties; 2.4 Electorates and Turnout; 2.5 Independent Candidates and 'None of the Above'; 2.5.1 None of the Above; 2.6 Candidates with Criminal Histories or Who Face Criminal Charges.
2.7 Concluding RemarksNotes; References; Chapter 3: Estimating the Likelihood of Winning Parliamentary Constituencies; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Marginal Constituencies; 3.3 The Likelihood of Winning Marginal Seats; 3.3.1 Election-on-Election Changes in the Probability of Winning Marginal Constituencies; 3.3.2 Incumbency Effects; 3.3.3 Number of Candidates, Turnout, and Vote Share; 3.4 The Electoral Performance of the INC and the BJP Compared; 3.4.1 Econometric Methodology; 3.5 Hindi-Speaking Versus Non-Hindi-Speaking States; 3.6 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References.
Chapter 4: Incumbents, Challengers, and Electoral Risk4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Bayes' Theorem and the 'Incumbency Effect'; 4.2.1 The 'Bayes Factor' and the 'Inverse Bayes Factor'; 4.2.2 The Inverse Bayes Factor; 4.3 Risk Ratio and Bayes Factor Calculations for Lok Sabha Elections; 4.4 The Inverse Risk Ratio and the Inverse Bayes Factor Calculations for Lok Sabha Elections; 4.5 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References; Chapter 5: Analysis of Vote Shares; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Estimating Vote Shares; 5.2.1 Predictive Performance of the SURE Model; 5.3 Incumbent and Challenger Vote Shares.
5.4 Vote Shares in Hindi-Speaking and Non-Hindi-Speaking States5.5 Concluding Remarks; Notes; Reference; Chapter 6: The Relationship Between Votes and Seats; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 The Electoral Fortunes of the INC and the BJP; 6.3 The 'Amplification Coefficient' and the Law of the Cubic Proportion; 6.4 Calculating the Amplification Coefficient for the INC and the BJP; 6.5 Hindi-Speaking States; 6.6 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References; Chapter 7: The Concentration and Distribution of Votes; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Where the Votes Come from: The Concentration of Votes by State.
7.2.1 The Effective Number of States7.3 Inequality in the Inter-Constituency Distribution of Party Vote Shares; 7.4 The Decomposition of Inequality in Vote Shares; 7.5 The Effect of the Distribution of Votes on the Number of Seats Won; 7.5.1 Simulation A: The Equal Distribution of Votes; 7.5.2 Simulation B: Equal Number of Votes Received; 7.6 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References; Chapter 8: Conclusions; Reference; Index.
2.7 Concluding RemarksNotes; References; Chapter 3: Estimating the Likelihood of Winning Parliamentary Constituencies; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Marginal Constituencies; 3.3 The Likelihood of Winning Marginal Seats; 3.3.1 Election-on-Election Changes in the Probability of Winning Marginal Constituencies; 3.3.2 Incumbency Effects; 3.3.3 Number of Candidates, Turnout, and Vote Share; 3.4 The Electoral Performance of the INC and the BJP Compared; 3.4.1 Econometric Methodology; 3.5 Hindi-Speaking Versus Non-Hindi-Speaking States; 3.6 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References.
Chapter 4: Incumbents, Challengers, and Electoral Risk4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Bayes' Theorem and the 'Incumbency Effect'; 4.2.1 The 'Bayes Factor' and the 'Inverse Bayes Factor'; 4.2.2 The Inverse Bayes Factor; 4.3 Risk Ratio and Bayes Factor Calculations for Lok Sabha Elections; 4.4 The Inverse Risk Ratio and the Inverse Bayes Factor Calculations for Lok Sabha Elections; 4.5 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References; Chapter 5: Analysis of Vote Shares; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Estimating Vote Shares; 5.2.1 Predictive Performance of the SURE Model; 5.3 Incumbent and Challenger Vote Shares.
5.4 Vote Shares in Hindi-Speaking and Non-Hindi-Speaking States5.5 Concluding Remarks; Notes; Reference; Chapter 6: The Relationship Between Votes and Seats; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 The Electoral Fortunes of the INC and the BJP; 6.3 The 'Amplification Coefficient' and the Law of the Cubic Proportion; 6.4 Calculating the Amplification Coefficient for the INC and the BJP; 6.5 Hindi-Speaking States; 6.6 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References; Chapter 7: The Concentration and Distribution of Votes; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Where the Votes Come from: The Concentration of Votes by State.
7.2.1 The Effective Number of States7.3 Inequality in the Inter-Constituency Distribution of Party Vote Shares; 7.4 The Decomposition of Inequality in Vote Shares; 7.5 The Effect of the Distribution of Votes on the Number of Seats Won; 7.5.1 Simulation A: The Equal Distribution of Votes; 7.5.2 Simulation B: Equal Number of Votes Received; 7.6 Concluding Remarks; Notes; References; Chapter 8: Conclusions; Reference; Index.