@article{824750,
      recid = {824750},
      author = {Dias, Luis C., and Morton, Alec, and Quigley, John,},
      title = {Elicitation : the science and art of structuring judgement  /},
      pages = {1 online resource.},
      abstract = {This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the  quantitative expression of subjective judgement about  matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about  matters of value, interacting with decision makers or  stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of  procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to  think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for  decision support systems and models. This presentation  encompasses research originating in the communities of  structured probability elicitation/calibration and  multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each  other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on  processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the  Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple  experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of  validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield  elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches  following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of  structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and  how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations  between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes  to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers,  including two chapters on problems under uncertainty  (utility functions), and three chapters that address  elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence  of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and  ELECTRE).  Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues  for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of  preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the  last group of chapters illustrates how some of the  presented approaches are applied in practice, including a  food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health  care decision making; an expert judgement based method to  elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in  a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and  elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek  region.},
      url = {http://library.usi.edu/record/824750},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4},
}