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Table of Contents
Intro; Preface; Acknowledgements; Principal Investigator; Research Team Members; Contents; Executive Summary; 1 China's Economic Performance in the First Half of 2017; 1.1 Overview; 1.2 Both GDP Growth and the Growth of Industrial Value Added Exceeded Projections, and Equipment Industries Continued to Expand Strongly; 1.3 Improved Exports and Inventory Replenishment Boosted the Growth of Industrial Value Added; 1.4 Both Private Investment and Manufacturing Investment Improved, and Infrastructure Investment Swelled Rapidly
1.5 Housing Sales Went Strong, and the Third and Fourth-Tier Cities Reduced Real Estate Inventory Rapidly1.6 Employment, Residential Income, and Consumption Picked up, and Rural Consumption Pushed up the Overall Consumption; 1.7 Prices Remained Stable, and Supply-Side Contraction Pushed up Industrial Prices; 1.8 The Growth of M2 Continued to Slow Down, and Strengthened Financial Supervision Did not Hinder Social Funds from Supporting the Real Economy; 1.9 Proceeds from Transferring State-Owned Land-Use Rights Increased Substantially, While the Fiscal Deficit Expanded Strongly
2 Quarterly Forecast for 2017-182.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables; 2.1.1 GDP Growth of the United States and the Euro Area; 2.1.2 The Exchange Rates; 2.1.3 The Broad Money Supply (M2); 2.2 Quarterly Forecast of China's Key Macroeconomic Indicators in 2017-18; 2.2.1 GDP Growth; 2.2.2 Key Prices Indices; 2.3 Growth of Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators; 2.3.1 Exports, Imports, and Foreign Exchange Reserves; 2.3.2 Growth of the FAI; 2.3.3 Growth of Residents' Income and Consumption; 3 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changing Budget Constraints on the Non-financial SOEs; 3.1 Background
3.1.1 The Significant Increase in Leverage Rate of the SOEs Is the Main Source of China's Financial Risks3.1.2 Main Causes of High Leverage of Non-financial SOEs; 3.1.2.1 Excessive Macro Liquidity; 3.1.2.2 Financing Structure Dominated by Debt Financing; 3.1.2.3 The Development of Shadow Banking Has also Increased Markedly the Leverage of Non-financial Sectors, Especially Non-financial Enterprises; 3.1.2.4 The SOEs Face Soft Budget Constraint and the Loan Allocation Biased to the SOEs; 3.2 Simulation Plan; 3.2.1 Simulation Scenarios Planning; 3.2.1.1 Counter-Factual Assumptions on M2 Growth
3.2.1.2 Counter-Factual Assumptions on Budget Constraints of Non-financial SOEs3.2.2 Transmission Mechanism of Policy Simulation; 3.3 Simulation Results; 3.3.1 Scenario I the SOEs Face Soft Budget Constraint; 3.3.2 Scenario II the SOEs Face the Hard Budget Constraint; 4 Policy Implications and Suggestions; 5 Appendix: Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2017
1.5 Housing Sales Went Strong, and the Third and Fourth-Tier Cities Reduced Real Estate Inventory Rapidly1.6 Employment, Residential Income, and Consumption Picked up, and Rural Consumption Pushed up the Overall Consumption; 1.7 Prices Remained Stable, and Supply-Side Contraction Pushed up Industrial Prices; 1.8 The Growth of M2 Continued to Slow Down, and Strengthened Financial Supervision Did not Hinder Social Funds from Supporting the Real Economy; 1.9 Proceeds from Transferring State-Owned Land-Use Rights Increased Substantially, While the Fiscal Deficit Expanded Strongly
2 Quarterly Forecast for 2017-182.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables; 2.1.1 GDP Growth of the United States and the Euro Area; 2.1.2 The Exchange Rates; 2.1.3 The Broad Money Supply (M2); 2.2 Quarterly Forecast of China's Key Macroeconomic Indicators in 2017-18; 2.2.1 GDP Growth; 2.2.2 Key Prices Indices; 2.3 Growth of Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators; 2.3.1 Exports, Imports, and Foreign Exchange Reserves; 2.3.2 Growth of the FAI; 2.3.3 Growth of Residents' Income and Consumption; 3 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changing Budget Constraints on the Non-financial SOEs; 3.1 Background
3.1.1 The Significant Increase in Leverage Rate of the SOEs Is the Main Source of China's Financial Risks3.1.2 Main Causes of High Leverage of Non-financial SOEs; 3.1.2.1 Excessive Macro Liquidity; 3.1.2.2 Financing Structure Dominated by Debt Financing; 3.1.2.3 The Development of Shadow Banking Has also Increased Markedly the Leverage of Non-financial Sectors, Especially Non-financial Enterprises; 3.1.2.4 The SOEs Face Soft Budget Constraint and the Loan Allocation Biased to the SOEs; 3.2 Simulation Plan; 3.2.1 Simulation Scenarios Planning; 3.2.1.1 Counter-Factual Assumptions on M2 Growth
3.2.1.2 Counter-Factual Assumptions on Budget Constraints of Non-financial SOEs3.2.2 Transmission Mechanism of Policy Simulation; 3.3 Simulation Results; 3.3.1 Scenario I the SOEs Face Soft Budget Constraint; 3.3.2 Scenario II the SOEs Face the Hard Budget Constraint; 4 Policy Implications and Suggestions; 5 Appendix: Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2017