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Table of Contents
Intro
Preface
Acknowledgements
Contents
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction
Chapter 1: The Elusive Economic Consensus over Brexit
Different Methodologies, Different Conclusions
Historical and Counterfactual Analysis
Macroeconomic Models
CGE Simulations
Reduced-Form Evidence Using Gravity Modelling
Influential 'Consensus' Studies
Choice of Models and Their Micro-Foundations Influences Results
The Crucial Role of Assumptions in Economic Models
Drivers of Brexit Impact
Dissenting Studies
The Need for More Comprehensive Analysis
References
Chapter 2: The Fiscal Impact of Brexit
Composition and Size of the EU Budget
Financial Management and Fraud
UK Contributions to the EU Budget
The UK Rebate
Gross Versus Net Contributions
Misuse of Statistics
The Uncertainty of Future Budgetary Developments
References
Chapter 3: Brexit and Trade
The Economic Theory of Trade
Theoretical Effects of Trade Integration
Trends in Trade Development
UK Trade Development
Deficit
The EU-A Declining Market for UK Trade
European Trade Integration
Empirical Studies-Initial Impact of EU Membership
Empirical Studies-Medium-Term Impact of EU Membership
The Predicted Trade-Related Impact from Brexit
Tariffs Under the 'WTO Option'
Economic Models-Trade Predictions
The Loss of Future Trade Benefits from EU Membership
Conclusions
References
Chapter 4: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) After Brexit
Definition-What Is FDI?
Theoretical Impact-Why Is FDI Important?
Determinants of FDI
FDI and the UK Economy
Magnitude of FDI
Origin of FDI
Composition of FDI
FDI and the UK Economy
The Potential Impact of Brexit upon FDI
Limitations of Economic Estimates
Attitude Surveys-International Investors
Policy Response
Case Study: Brexit and the Car Industry
Conclusion
References
Chapter 5: Regulation
Regulation-Benefit or Burden?
What Proportion of UK Laws Derive from the EU?
Can Brexit Deliver a Regulatory Benefit?
Most UK Businesses Do Not Export into the SIM
The Estimated Costs and Benefits of EU Regulations
Are National Regulations More Beneficial to the UK Economy?
Regulation After Brexit
'Singapore on Thames'
Modest but Significant Potential Regulatory Gain
Regulatory Divergence or Level Playing Field
Conclusion
References
Chapter 6: Migration
Insights into Understanding Migration, Its Motivations and Impact
What Is Migration, How Is It Analysed and Why This Matters
Neo-classical Theory to Understand the Labour Market and Migration
Extensions of Neo-classical Theories Make Predictions More Real
The Importance of Migration-Creating Efficiency and a Wage Leveller?
Explaining the (Mis)match Between Migration Model Predictions and Reality
Preface
Acknowledgements
Contents
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction
Chapter 1: The Elusive Economic Consensus over Brexit
Different Methodologies, Different Conclusions
Historical and Counterfactual Analysis
Macroeconomic Models
CGE Simulations
Reduced-Form Evidence Using Gravity Modelling
Influential 'Consensus' Studies
Choice of Models and Their Micro-Foundations Influences Results
The Crucial Role of Assumptions in Economic Models
Drivers of Brexit Impact
Dissenting Studies
The Need for More Comprehensive Analysis
References
Chapter 2: The Fiscal Impact of Brexit
Composition and Size of the EU Budget
Financial Management and Fraud
UK Contributions to the EU Budget
The UK Rebate
Gross Versus Net Contributions
Misuse of Statistics
The Uncertainty of Future Budgetary Developments
References
Chapter 3: Brexit and Trade
The Economic Theory of Trade
Theoretical Effects of Trade Integration
Trends in Trade Development
UK Trade Development
Deficit
The EU-A Declining Market for UK Trade
European Trade Integration
Empirical Studies-Initial Impact of EU Membership
Empirical Studies-Medium-Term Impact of EU Membership
The Predicted Trade-Related Impact from Brexit
Tariffs Under the 'WTO Option'
Economic Models-Trade Predictions
The Loss of Future Trade Benefits from EU Membership
Conclusions
References
Chapter 4: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) After Brexit
Definition-What Is FDI?
Theoretical Impact-Why Is FDI Important?
Determinants of FDI
FDI and the UK Economy
Magnitude of FDI
Origin of FDI
Composition of FDI
FDI and the UK Economy
The Potential Impact of Brexit upon FDI
Limitations of Economic Estimates
Attitude Surveys-International Investors
Policy Response
Case Study: Brexit and the Car Industry
Conclusion
References
Chapter 5: Regulation
Regulation-Benefit or Burden?
What Proportion of UK Laws Derive from the EU?
Can Brexit Deliver a Regulatory Benefit?
Most UK Businesses Do Not Export into the SIM
The Estimated Costs and Benefits of EU Regulations
Are National Regulations More Beneficial to the UK Economy?
Regulation After Brexit
'Singapore on Thames'
Modest but Significant Potential Regulatory Gain
Regulatory Divergence or Level Playing Field
Conclusion
References
Chapter 6: Migration
Insights into Understanding Migration, Its Motivations and Impact
What Is Migration, How Is It Analysed and Why This Matters
Neo-classical Theory to Understand the Labour Market and Migration
Extensions of Neo-classical Theories Make Predictions More Real
The Importance of Migration-Creating Efficiency and a Wage Leveller?
Explaining the (Mis)match Between Migration Model Predictions and Reality