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Table of Contents
Front Cover
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Main Messages
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
The pandemic destroyed human capital at critical moments in the life cycle
Policies to reverse human capital losses
Building agile, resilient, and adaptive human development systems for future shocks
A human capital recovery: What will it take?
Notes
References
Chapter 1 A Human Capital Collapse: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Early Childhood, School-Age Children, and Young Adults
A pending crisis in productivity could last for multiple generations
Building human capital requires sustained investments along many dimensions from many sources
Human capital trajectories are set during childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood
Shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic decrease both levels of human capital and subsequent rates of accumulation
Countries have three potential paths following the pandemic: A permanently lower trajectory, partial recovery, or complete recovery
Choices today matter: Governments can change their recovery paths
The time window for addressing setbacks in human capital accumulation is short
Notes
References
Chapter 2 Poor Start: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Early Childhood Development and Subsequent Human Capital Accumulation
Shocks occurring during early childhood can persist for decades-and even across generations
The pandemic reduced critical investments in young children
Children's development slowed during lockdowns
These early setbacks will have long-lasting ramifications for human capital accumulation, earnings, and economic growth
How can policy get young children back on track?
Using the pandemic to prioritize investments in children
Notes
References.
Chapter 3 Learning Losses and Dropouts: The Heavy Cost COVID-19 Imposed on School-Age Children
Schooling generates enormous returns for people and societies
The COVID-19 pandemic led to shockingly long school closures
How have governments responded to the pandemic so far?
What should governments do now? Prioritize effective action
Inaction is also a decision (a poor one)
Annex 3A. Methodology for estimating lost Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS)
Notes
References
Chapter 4 Lost Opportunities: The Protracted Effects of the Pandemic on Youth and Young Adults
Youth is a critical moment in the life cycle
The pandemic led to a sharp reduction and an uneven recovery in employment globally
Youth employment and wages fell sharply and have recovered in some countries but not in others
Declines in youth employment were not fully made up by increases in school attendance
Beyond employment and schooling: Other adverse effects of the pandemic on youth
How have governments responded so far to the pandemic-related losses in young people's human capital?
What should governments do now?
Putting it all together
Annex 4A. Methodology to calculate changes in employment (and other outcomes) that can be attributed to the pandemic
Notes
References
Chapter 5 Recovery and Resilience: From Human Development Programs to Systems
A moment of reflection
What are the critical components of an HD system that can respond to systemic shocks?
How did HD systems fare during the pandemic?
Building agile, resilient, and adaptive HD systems
The path forward
Notes
References
Chapter 6 Human Capital: What Will It Take?
Losses in human capital have been deep and pervasive
The pandemic revealed systemic weaknesses in providing integrated solutions.
Human capital losses from the pandemic threaten the productivity of multiple generations
Recovery and resilience require immediate investment-they are not automatic
How can countries prioritize recovery strategies when fiscal space is tight?
The path to recovery
Notes
References
Boxes
Box 1.1 How does the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic affect human capital?
Box 2.1 What past shocks reveal about what can be expected during and immediately after a crisis
Box 2.2 Identifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of maternal health services
Box 2.3 Changes in the composition of patients versus changes in underlying health
Box 2.4 Using predictions to deal with trends when estimating impacts of the pandemic
Box 2.5 Measuring changes in skills due to the pandemic
Box 3.1 Decomposing learning losses in forgone and forgotten learning using rich data from Bangladesh
Box 3.2 The length of school closures is not correlated with country income or governance quality
Box 4.1 How labor market scarring works
Box 4.2 How wage subsidies in response to the pandemic differed by country income
Box 4.3 Brazil's measures for both informal workers at risk of poverty and low-wage formal workers
Box 5.1 Relying on prior investments to confront future crises better
Box 5.2 How countries expanded their social protection programs during the COVID-19 pandemic
Box 5.3 Leveraging the private sector and local partners to make the pandemic response more effective
Box 5.4 The urgent need to strengthen human development systems to prepare for future pandemics
Box 5.5 Togo's use of technology to extend support to vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 pandemic
Box 6.1 Transitions between stages of the life cycle are critical moments
Figures.
Figure ES.1 The pandemic led to steep losses in early childhood development and early learning in very young children in Bangladesh and Brazil
Figure ES.2 During the pandemic, each month of school closures led to one month of learning losses, and more so in countries with lower GDP per capita
Figure ES.3 Youth employment fell in most countries during the pandemic
Figure ES.4 Declines in employment of young people during the pandemic were not offset by increases in schooling or training
Figure ES.5 What are the paths to recovery?
Figure 1.1 Human capital accumulates over the life cycle
Figure 1.2 Human capital setbacks that occur at early ages can impair the entire trajectory of accumulation and lower future stocks of human capital
Figure 1.3 Making a full recovery requires increasing the rate of human capital accumulation compared to trajectories before the pandemic
Figure 2.1 The share of households and children who had to skip meals or eat smaller portions increased during early lockdowns in some countries
Figure 2.2 In low-income countries, women and infants lacked critical services during the early pandemic period
Figure 2.3 By 2021, coverage of essential childhood vaccines had yet to recover fully in many regions from its decline during lockdowns
Figure 2.4 Pre-primary attendance has not recovered from the pandemic in many countries
Figure 2.5 Mothers' mental health declined during early lockdowns in rural Colombia and rural Bangladesh, compared with levels in 2019
Figure 2.6 The pandemic induced large declines in cognitive and motor development among toddlers in rural Bangladesh, with larger effects on children whose mothers had less education
Figure 2.7 Children in preschool lost skills in language and math in Brazil, Chile, Rwanda, and Uruguay.
Figure 2.8 After the pandemic, learning of preschool-age children lagged behind pre-pandemic learning in Sobral, Brazil
Figure 3.1 Globally, an average school-age child lost about one year of in-person schooling
Figure 3.2 COVID-19 school closures had limited impacts on dropouts in middle-income countries but negative impacts in lower-income countries
Figure 3.3 Dropout rates are higher for households with low education levels
Figure 3.4 For 30 days of school closures, students lost 34 days of learning
Figure 3.5 Learning losses were higher in countries with lower GDP per capita after controlling for length of school closures
Figure 3.6 Regions vary in the Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) they lost due to the pandemic
Figure 3.7 Countries that had similar Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) before the pandemic had vastly different experiences with learning losses
Figure 3.8 Countries not losing many total Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) may have lost much in terms of pre-pandemic shares of LAYS (and vice versa)
Figure 3.9 Approximately 30 percent of learning losses in Bangladesh were forgotten learning
Figure B3.2.1 There is no systematic relationship between the length of school closures and log GDP per capita and an indicator of governance effectiveness
Figure 4.1 Worldwide, employment fell sharply during the pandemic
Figure 4.2 Youth employment declined sharply during the pandemic
Figure 4.3 In many countries, the employment losses of youth during the pandemic were compounded by declines in wages
Figure B4.1.1 Three scenarios show how short-term employment losses can affect a young person's future wages
Figure 4.4 School enrollment increased in some countries and declined in others during the pandemic.
Figure 4.5 The share of youth who were Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEETs) increased sharply in some countries during the pandemic.
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Main Messages
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
The pandemic destroyed human capital at critical moments in the life cycle
Policies to reverse human capital losses
Building agile, resilient, and adaptive human development systems for future shocks
A human capital recovery: What will it take?
Notes
References
Chapter 1 A Human Capital Collapse: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Early Childhood, School-Age Children, and Young Adults
A pending crisis in productivity could last for multiple generations
Building human capital requires sustained investments along many dimensions from many sources
Human capital trajectories are set during childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood
Shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic decrease both levels of human capital and subsequent rates of accumulation
Countries have three potential paths following the pandemic: A permanently lower trajectory, partial recovery, or complete recovery
Choices today matter: Governments can change their recovery paths
The time window for addressing setbacks in human capital accumulation is short
Notes
References
Chapter 2 Poor Start: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Early Childhood Development and Subsequent Human Capital Accumulation
Shocks occurring during early childhood can persist for decades-and even across generations
The pandemic reduced critical investments in young children
Children's development slowed during lockdowns
These early setbacks will have long-lasting ramifications for human capital accumulation, earnings, and economic growth
How can policy get young children back on track?
Using the pandemic to prioritize investments in children
Notes
References.
Chapter 3 Learning Losses and Dropouts: The Heavy Cost COVID-19 Imposed on School-Age Children
Schooling generates enormous returns for people and societies
The COVID-19 pandemic led to shockingly long school closures
How have governments responded to the pandemic so far?
What should governments do now? Prioritize effective action
Inaction is also a decision (a poor one)
Annex 3A. Methodology for estimating lost Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS)
Notes
References
Chapter 4 Lost Opportunities: The Protracted Effects of the Pandemic on Youth and Young Adults
Youth is a critical moment in the life cycle
The pandemic led to a sharp reduction and an uneven recovery in employment globally
Youth employment and wages fell sharply and have recovered in some countries but not in others
Declines in youth employment were not fully made up by increases in school attendance
Beyond employment and schooling: Other adverse effects of the pandemic on youth
How have governments responded so far to the pandemic-related losses in young people's human capital?
What should governments do now?
Putting it all together
Annex 4A. Methodology to calculate changes in employment (and other outcomes) that can be attributed to the pandemic
Notes
References
Chapter 5 Recovery and Resilience: From Human Development Programs to Systems
A moment of reflection
What are the critical components of an HD system that can respond to systemic shocks?
How did HD systems fare during the pandemic?
Building agile, resilient, and adaptive HD systems
The path forward
Notes
References
Chapter 6 Human Capital: What Will It Take?
Losses in human capital have been deep and pervasive
The pandemic revealed systemic weaknesses in providing integrated solutions.
Human capital losses from the pandemic threaten the productivity of multiple generations
Recovery and resilience require immediate investment-they are not automatic
How can countries prioritize recovery strategies when fiscal space is tight?
The path to recovery
Notes
References
Boxes
Box 1.1 How does the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic affect human capital?
Box 2.1 What past shocks reveal about what can be expected during and immediately after a crisis
Box 2.2 Identifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of maternal health services
Box 2.3 Changes in the composition of patients versus changes in underlying health
Box 2.4 Using predictions to deal with trends when estimating impacts of the pandemic
Box 2.5 Measuring changes in skills due to the pandemic
Box 3.1 Decomposing learning losses in forgone and forgotten learning using rich data from Bangladesh
Box 3.2 The length of school closures is not correlated with country income or governance quality
Box 4.1 How labor market scarring works
Box 4.2 How wage subsidies in response to the pandemic differed by country income
Box 4.3 Brazil's measures for both informal workers at risk of poverty and low-wage formal workers
Box 5.1 Relying on prior investments to confront future crises better
Box 5.2 How countries expanded their social protection programs during the COVID-19 pandemic
Box 5.3 Leveraging the private sector and local partners to make the pandemic response more effective
Box 5.4 The urgent need to strengthen human development systems to prepare for future pandemics
Box 5.5 Togo's use of technology to extend support to vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 pandemic
Box 6.1 Transitions between stages of the life cycle are critical moments
Figures.
Figure ES.1 The pandemic led to steep losses in early childhood development and early learning in very young children in Bangladesh and Brazil
Figure ES.2 During the pandemic, each month of school closures led to one month of learning losses, and more so in countries with lower GDP per capita
Figure ES.3 Youth employment fell in most countries during the pandemic
Figure ES.4 Declines in employment of young people during the pandemic were not offset by increases in schooling or training
Figure ES.5 What are the paths to recovery?
Figure 1.1 Human capital accumulates over the life cycle
Figure 1.2 Human capital setbacks that occur at early ages can impair the entire trajectory of accumulation and lower future stocks of human capital
Figure 1.3 Making a full recovery requires increasing the rate of human capital accumulation compared to trajectories before the pandemic
Figure 2.1 The share of households and children who had to skip meals or eat smaller portions increased during early lockdowns in some countries
Figure 2.2 In low-income countries, women and infants lacked critical services during the early pandemic period
Figure 2.3 By 2021, coverage of essential childhood vaccines had yet to recover fully in many regions from its decline during lockdowns
Figure 2.4 Pre-primary attendance has not recovered from the pandemic in many countries
Figure 2.5 Mothers' mental health declined during early lockdowns in rural Colombia and rural Bangladesh, compared with levels in 2019
Figure 2.6 The pandemic induced large declines in cognitive and motor development among toddlers in rural Bangladesh, with larger effects on children whose mothers had less education
Figure 2.7 Children in preschool lost skills in language and math in Brazil, Chile, Rwanda, and Uruguay.
Figure 2.8 After the pandemic, learning of preschool-age children lagged behind pre-pandemic learning in Sobral, Brazil
Figure 3.1 Globally, an average school-age child lost about one year of in-person schooling
Figure 3.2 COVID-19 school closures had limited impacts on dropouts in middle-income countries but negative impacts in lower-income countries
Figure 3.3 Dropout rates are higher for households with low education levels
Figure 3.4 For 30 days of school closures, students lost 34 days of learning
Figure 3.5 Learning losses were higher in countries with lower GDP per capita after controlling for length of school closures
Figure 3.6 Regions vary in the Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) they lost due to the pandemic
Figure 3.7 Countries that had similar Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) before the pandemic had vastly different experiences with learning losses
Figure 3.8 Countries not losing many total Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) may have lost much in terms of pre-pandemic shares of LAYS (and vice versa)
Figure 3.9 Approximately 30 percent of learning losses in Bangladesh were forgotten learning
Figure B3.2.1 There is no systematic relationship between the length of school closures and log GDP per capita and an indicator of governance effectiveness
Figure 4.1 Worldwide, employment fell sharply during the pandemic
Figure 4.2 Youth employment declined sharply during the pandemic
Figure 4.3 In many countries, the employment losses of youth during the pandemic were compounded by declines in wages
Figure B4.1.1 Three scenarios show how short-term employment losses can affect a young person's future wages
Figure 4.4 School enrollment increased in some countries and declined in others during the pandemic.
Figure 4.5 The share of youth who were Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEETs) increased sharply in some countries during the pandemic.