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Table of Contents
Forecasting in extreme environments
Thinking in probabilities
The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
Fighting information overload with strategy
Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
Mitigating information asymmetry
Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
Judgment.
Thinking in probabilities
The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
Fighting information overload with strategy
Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
Mitigating information asymmetry
Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
Judgment.