Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
2015
HB3730 .T47 2015 (Mapit)
Available at General Collection
Items
Details
Title
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
ISBN
9780804136693 hardcover
0804136696 hardcover
9780804136716 paperback
0804136718 paperback
9780804136709 electronic book
0804136696 hardcover
9780804136716 paperback
0804136718 paperback
9780804136709 electronic book
Published
New York : Crown, 2015.
Language
English
Description
340 pages ; 25 cm
Call Number
HB3730 .T47 2015
Dewey Decimal Classification
303.49
Summary
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- Provided by publisher.
Bibliography, etc. Note
Includes bibliographical references pages [291]-328 and index.
Added Author
Gardner, Dan, 1968-
Record Appears in
On-Campus Resources > Books
All Resources
All Resources
Table of Contents
An Optimistic Skeptic
Illusions of Knowledge
Keeping Score
Superforecasters
Supersmart?
Superquants?
Supernewsjunkies?
Perpetual Beta
Superteams
The Leader's Dilemma
Are They Really So Super?
What's Next?
Epilogue
An Invitation
Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters.
Illusions of Knowledge
Keeping Score
Superforecasters
Supersmart?
Superquants?
Supernewsjunkies?
Perpetual Beta
Superteams
The Leader's Dilemma
Are They Really So Super?
What's Next?
Epilogue
An Invitation
Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters.