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Table of Contents
1 Introduction; Abstract ; Reference; 2 Theory; Abstract ; 2.1 The "Old Decennial Cycle" and Its Theorizations; 2.1.1 Industrial Crises; 2.1.2 Classical Business Cycles; 2.2 The Years of High Theory; 2.2.1 Austrian Theory; 2.2.2 The Keynesian Revolution; 2.3 Keynesianism and Around; 2.3.1 The Keynesian School; 2.3.2 The Samuelson-Hicks Model; 2.3.3 "Non-linear" Contributions of Goodwin and Allais; 2.4 The Statistical and Econometric Approaches; 2.4.1 The First Steps; 2.4.2 The "Tinbergen Moment"; 2.4.3 Towards Large Scale Models; References; 3 Empirics; Abstract.
3.1 Towards New Approaches of the Cycle3.1.1 The Decomposition of the Neo-Classical Synthesis; 3.1.2 Equilibrium Cycles; 3.1.3 Unorthodox Theories: Minsky; 3.1.4 Unorthodox Theories: Hayek; 3.2 Long Cycles; 3.2.1 From the Precursors; 3.2.2 To the Schumpeterian Tradition; 3.3 The Empirics of Business Cycle Analysis; 3.3.1 What Is the Business Cycle?; 3.3.2 Measuring and Dating the Business Cycle; References; 4 Dating; Abstract ; 4.1 Methodology; 4.1.1 Markov-Switching Models; 4.1.2 Estimation; 4.1.3 Testing for Nonlinearity; 4.2 Dating the French Business Cycle; 4.2.1 Data and Models.
4.2.2 Estimation and Results (I)4.2.3 Estimations and Results (II); 4.3 The Case of South Africa; 4.3.1 Model and Data; 4.3.2 Estimation and Tests; 4.3.3 A Chronology of the Business Cycle; 4.3.4 A Brief Comparison; References; 5 Forecasting; Abstract ; 5.1 Chronology and Features of the German Cycle; 5.1.1 BBQ Algorithm; 5.1.2 Some Characteristics of the German Cycle; 5.2 The Econometric Model; 5.2.1 The Dynamic Probit; 5.2.2 Empirical Model; 5.2.3 In-Sample Prediction; 5.3 Forecasting in Real Time; 5.3.1 The Predicting Method; 5.3.2 Forecasting the Recessions After 2005; References.
6 AfterwordAbstract ; 6.1 A Plea for a New Econometrics-Based Macroeconomics; 6.2 The Standard Macroeconomic Model; 6.3 A Critical Evaluation; 6.4 The Turmoil of the 2007-2008 Crisis; 6.5 Macroeconomics Otherwise; References.
3.1 Towards New Approaches of the Cycle3.1.1 The Decomposition of the Neo-Classical Synthesis; 3.1.2 Equilibrium Cycles; 3.1.3 Unorthodox Theories: Minsky; 3.1.4 Unorthodox Theories: Hayek; 3.2 Long Cycles; 3.2.1 From the Precursors; 3.2.2 To the Schumpeterian Tradition; 3.3 The Empirics of Business Cycle Analysis; 3.3.1 What Is the Business Cycle?; 3.3.2 Measuring and Dating the Business Cycle; References; 4 Dating; Abstract ; 4.1 Methodology; 4.1.1 Markov-Switching Models; 4.1.2 Estimation; 4.1.3 Testing for Nonlinearity; 4.2 Dating the French Business Cycle; 4.2.1 Data and Models.
4.2.2 Estimation and Results (I)4.2.3 Estimations and Results (II); 4.3 The Case of South Africa; 4.3.1 Model and Data; 4.3.2 Estimation and Tests; 4.3.3 A Chronology of the Business Cycle; 4.3.4 A Brief Comparison; References; 5 Forecasting; Abstract ; 5.1 Chronology and Features of the German Cycle; 5.1.1 BBQ Algorithm; 5.1.2 Some Characteristics of the German Cycle; 5.2 The Econometric Model; 5.2.1 The Dynamic Probit; 5.2.2 Empirical Model; 5.2.3 In-Sample Prediction; 5.3 Forecasting in Real Time; 5.3.1 The Predicting Method; 5.3.2 Forecasting the Recessions After 2005; References.
6 AfterwordAbstract ; 6.1 A Plea for a New Econometrics-Based Macroeconomics; 6.2 The Standard Macroeconomic Model; 6.3 A Critical Evaluation; 6.4 The Turmoil of the 2007-2008 Crisis; 6.5 Macroeconomics Otherwise; References.