Elicitation : the science and art of structuring judgement / Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley, editors.
Dias, Luis C., editor.; Morton, Alec, editor.; Quigley, John, editor.
2018
BF311
Available Online

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Title Elicitation : the science and art of structuring judgement / Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley, editors.
ISBN 9783319650524 (electronic book)
3319650521 (electronic book)
9783319650517
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4
Published Cham, Switzerland : Springer, [2018]
Language English
Description 1 online resource.
Item Number 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4 doi
Call Number BF311
Dewey Decimal Classification 153.4
Summary This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Bibliography, etc. Note Includes bibliographical references.
Access Note Access limited to authorized users.
Digital File Characteristics text file PDF
Source of Description Online resource; title from PDF title page (viewed November 28, 2017).
Added Author Dias, Luis C., editor.
Morton, Alec, editor.
Quigley, John, editor.
Series International series in operations research & management science ; 261.
Available in Other Form Print version: 9783319650517
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Record Appears in Online Resources > Ebooks
All Resources
Elicitation: State of the Art and Science
Elicitation in the Classical Model
Validation in the Classical Model
SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework
IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification
Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective
Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data: An Empirical Bayes Approach
Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process
Combining Judgments from Correlated Experts
Utility Elicitation
Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility
Multiattribute Value Elicitation
Disaggregation Approach to Value Elicitation
Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models
Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments
The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation
Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems
Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment
Expert Judgement Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US
Risk Assessment using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System
Group Decision Support for Ecology Economics: A Case Study to Guide the Process of Preferences' Elicitation.

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