Tychomancy : Inferring Probability from Causal Structure / Michael Strevens.
Strevens, Michael, author.
2013
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Title Tychomancy : Inferring Probability from Causal Structure / Michael Strevens.
Author Strevens, Michael, author.
ISBN 9780674075986
DOI https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674075986
Published Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press, [2013]
Copyright ©2013
Language English
Language Note In English.
Description 1 online resource (279 p.) : 18 line illustrations
Other Standard Identifiers 10.4159/harvard.9780674075986 doi
Summary Tychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities.
Access Note Access limited to authorized users.
System Details Note Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web.
Digital File Characteristics text file PDF
Source of Description Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 30. Aug 2021)
In E-BOOK GESAMTPAKET / COMPLETE PACKAGE 2013
E-BOOK PACKAGE CHEMISTRY, MATERIALS SC., BIOL., GEOSC. 2013
E-BOOK PAKET CHEMIE, MATERIALWISS., BIOLOGIE, GEOWISS. 2013
HUP eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 (Canada)
Harvard University Press eBook Package Backlist 2000-2013
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Frontmatter
CONTENTS
FIGURES
AUTHOR'S NOTE
PHYSICAL INTUITION
I. 1859
1. THE APRIORIST
2. THE HISTORICAL WAY
3. THE LOGICAL WAY
4 THE COGNITIVE WAY
II. EQUIDYNAMICS
5. STIRRING
6. SHAKING
7. BOUNCING
8. UNIFYING
III. BEYOND PHYSICS
9. 1859 AGAIN
10. APPLIED BIOEQUIDYNAMICS
11. INACCURACY, ERROR, AND OTHER FLUCTUATIONS
IV. BEFORE AND AFTER
12. THE EXOGENOUS ZONE
13. THE ELEMENTS OF EQUIDYNAMICS
14. PREHISTORY AND META - HISTORY
NOTES
GLOSSARY
REFERENCES
INDEX

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